Market Overview: OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) on 2025-11-13

Summary
• The TRUMPJPY opened at 1159.0 and closed at 1182.0, with a 24-hour high of 1206.0 and low of 1144.0.
• Momentum has improved, with RSI and MACD indicating a potential overbought condition in the final hours.
• Bollinger Band contractions suggest reduced volatility early in the session, followed by a gradual expansion.
• Volume has spiked during key bull moves but remains unevenly distributed across the session.
• A strong 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern formed near the session high, reinforcing a potential continuation to 1210.

Opening Context and 24-Hour Performance

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at 1159.0 on the previous day and closed at 1182.0, with a high of 1206.0 and low of 1144.0 observed throughout the session. The total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 7,624.17 units, and the notional turnover stood at 9,105,100 Yen. The price action reflects a moderate bullish tilt, with late-session strength and key pattern formations indicating potential continuation above 1182.0 in the next 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a clear bullish bias, with key support levels forming at 1144.0, 1150.0, and 1175.0, while resistance appears at 1185.0, 1195.0, and 1205.0. A notable bullish engulfing pattern developed at 12:00 ET, suggesting potential continuation toward 1205.0. A doji formed briefly at 1182.0, indicating indecision in the final hours of the session.

Moving Averages and Trend Direction

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages trend upward, with price consistently above both, affirming a bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages suggest a mixed trend—price remains above the 200-period, but the 50-period has yet to confirm a strong uptrend. The cross of 15-minute MAs remains a watchpoint for momentum confirmation.

Momentum and Overbought Conditions

The RSI-14 climbed above 65 by the end of the session, signaling potential overbought conditions. The MACD histogram has expanded positively, suggesting continued momentum. However, the RSI may face rejection near 70, and a reversal in the MACD line could signal the first sign of topping.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility Shifts

Bollinger Bands were in contraction early in the session, with prices consolidating within a narrow range. A gradual expansion followed as volatility increased, with price staying above the mid-band. The recent move toward the upper band indicates a strong bullish phase, but a break beyond the upper band would require confirmation on the next 15-minute candles.

Volume and Notional Turnover

Volume distribution was uneven, with spikes observed during key price surges toward 1195.0 and 1206.0. The highest volume spike occurred between 06:00 and 07:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp move from 1201.0 to 1206.0. Notional turnover was concentrated in the 01:00–07:00 ET window, with no divergence observed between price and volume.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute swing from 1144.0 to 1206.0 indicate potential correction levels at 1180.0 (38.2%) and 1169.0 (61.8%). On the daily chart, the 1175.0 and 1191.0 levels represent potential retracement zones for a broader pullback or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest based on RSI-14 overbought and oversold conditions would align with the recent TRUMPJPY behavior, particularly the late-session move above 70 and the bullish momentum seen in the MACD. However, due to the unavailability of RSI-14 data for TRUMPJPY, the backtest could not be executed. Once a valid symbol is confirmed—whether TRUMPJPY through a different provider or a comparable instrument like USDJPY—the RSI-based strategy could be implemented to test buy/sell signals based on overbought (RSI > 70) and oversold (RSI < 30) levels. The strategy would aim to capture short-term swings and assess its profitability over the 2022–2025 period.