Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) - 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price opened at 1205.0 and closed at 1240.0 after a volatile session with a high of 1288.0 and low of 1179.0.
• Strong momentum picked up after 03:15 ET as price surged past key resistance levels.
• Volume spiked to 516.7165 during the peak rally, confirming bullish conviction.
• Overbought RSI and widening Bollinger Bands signal potential exhaustion or a breakout continuation.
• A key Fibonacci 61.8% level at 1255.0 was tested and retested during the session.

Opening Summary

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at 1205.0 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1288.0 before closing at 1240.0 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour session saw a dramatic low of 1179.0. Total volume was 11,276.969 and notional turnover was approximately $13.67M (assuming average price of 1,212.0 for estimation). The market showed high volatility and increased participation in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a sharp bearish reversal at 18:45 ET with a large bearish candle, followed by a gradual recovery that culminated in a bullish breakout above 1240.0. The 05:00 ET session saw a strong engulfing candle that confirmed the bullish bias. A doji at 07:15 ET suggested indecision at the session's peak.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed the price well above both lines after 05:00 ET, confirming a strong bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages were crossed during the late-night rally, indicating potential trend acceleration.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line at 03:15 ET, forming a golden cross, and remained positive for the rest of the session. RSI reached overbought territory (70+) at 05:30 ET, indicating potential short-term exhaustion. However, the sustained momentum suggests a continuation of the bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the late-night session, with Bollinger Bands widening as the price surged. The close was near the upper band, reinforcing bullish momentum but also signaling a potential pullback in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 516.7165 during the peak bullish move at 05:00 ET, confirming strong buying interest. The divergence between volume and price was minimal, suggesting price action is supported by increasing participation. However, the flat volume at 07:15 ET could indicate waning momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1255.0 was tested twice during the session and held on the final test. The 78.6% level at 1269.0 was also reached briefly before a pullback. These levels may serve as support in the near future.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD golden cross at 03:15 ET triggered a potential long signal. If we had entered long at that point, the trade would have been held until the next divergence in RSI or a bearish candle pattern. Based on the data, this strategy would have captured a significant portion of the rally, validating the technical indicators used in the analysis.