Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) on 2025-10-09

• Price rose to 1186 Yen before reversing lower, closing near 1154 Yen.
• Volume was sparse until a sharp drop late in the session.
• Bollinger Bands signaled consolidation before the late bearish move.
• RSI hit overbought levels mid-day but showed no follow-through.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted key levels during the retracement from 1186.

Opening and Closing Action

At 12:00 ET−1 (2025-10-08 16:00 ET), the OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at 1152.0 Yen and reached a high of 1186.0 Yen during the day before closing at 1154.0 Yen at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 521.8674 contracts and a notional turnover of 606,747.2 Yen (calculated from close prices). The price action suggests a bearish reversal from overbought conditions, with late-day selling pressure pulling the pair down toward 1154.

Structure and Key Levels

The 15-minute chart showed a bullish impulse from 1152.0 to 1186.0 Yen, followed by a bearish reversal with a key engulfing pattern forming at the top. A bearish morning star appeared at the 1180.0 Yen level, confirming a shift in sentiment. Notable support levels include 1155.0 and 1145.0 Yen, while 1173.0 and 1182.0 Yen acted as resistance during earlier waves. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1152.0–1186.0 move sits at ~1173.0 Yen, aligning with earlier resistance.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA early in the session before being rejected. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA late in the day, signaling a bearish trend shift. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits below the 100-period MA, indicating bearish bias. The MACD histogram turned negative in the afternoon and showed bearish divergence with price during the pullback. RSI peaked at overbought (80) during the bullish phase but failed to confirm further gains, hinting at exhaustion.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands contracted during the early morning and widened as the price surged toward 1186.0 Yen. Price peaked just above the upper band before reversing sharply. During the afternoon sell-off, the pair closed below the 20-period moving average and drifted toward the lower band. The late-day drop brought price closer to the 20-period band floor, suggesting potential for a rebound or continued bearish momentum depending on volume.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described aims to capture short-term bearish momentum by entering a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA, RSI confirms overbought conditions (above 70), and price closes below the upper Bollinger Band. Stops are placed just above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent bullish swing, while targets align with key support levels such as 1155.0 and 1145.0 Yen. The strategy relies on early confirmation signals and volume spikes to filter out noise, making the 15-minute timeframe most suitable for execution.