Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether USDt (TRUMPUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-11)

• Price declined sharply after forming a bearish engulfing pattern around 19:30 ET.
• Volatility expanded significantly with a 15-minute swing of over 12 cents.
• RSI hit oversold levels, indicating potential short-term bounce.
• Turnover spiked during the decline but remained weak during the subsequent recovery.
• Price is currently consolidating near a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

The 24-hour period for TRUMPUSDT saw a dramatic swing, opening at $8.84 and peaking at $8.87 before collapsing to a low of $8.71, and closing at $8.75 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to approximately 1,587,205 units, with a notional turnover of $13.94 million. The sharp intraday decline raised volatility concerns while also creating potential for a rebound from key support.

Structure & Formations

The most notable pattern emerged around 19:30–20:00 ET, where a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. Additionally, a long lower shadow at 12:00–12:15 ET hinted at a possible short-term bounce. Key support levels formed at $8.75 and $8.71, while resistance appears at $8.82–$8.85. A doji formed at 09:15–09:30 ET, suggesting indecision during a key rally phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming bearish momentum. While on the daily chart, the 50-day MA is approaching $8.80, and a cross below that level may trigger further bearish pressure. The 200-day MA is likely above current levels, reinforcing a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line with a bearish divergence, especially notable after the 20:00 ET low. The RSI hit oversold territory near 28, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, a failure to close above $8.82 could signal a deeper correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the decline, with the price reaching the lower band at $8.71. The 15-minute Bollinger Bands widened to over 0.12, indicating high uncertainty. Price has since consolidated around the middle band, suggesting a potential for a rebound or a continuation of the downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline, with the largest 15-minute turnover occurring at 19:30–19:45 ET, confirming bearish conviction. However, the recovery phase after 12:00 ET saw relatively weak volume, indicating a lack of buying interest. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the rally, casting doubt on the sustainability of the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the key 19:30–12:00 ET swing sits at $8.75, where the price is currently consolidating. A break below $8.71 (78.6%) would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level is near $8.80, and a rejection at that level could prompt a further pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern, with a stop above the high of the engulfing candle and a target at 61.8% of the retracement from the key swing. This setup aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern seen at 19:30 ET and could be tested across similar price actions over the past 30 days. Given the strong volume confirmation during the pattern, this approach could provide a high probability short-term trading signal.