Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT): Volatile 24-Hour Move with Diverging Momentum

Summary
• Price formed bearish engulfing patterns near $4.82, signaling potential short-term reversal.
• Volatility surged during the 3:15–4:15 AM ET window, with price dropping over $0.10 amid heavy volume.
• RSI hit oversold levels by 5:30 AM ET, hinting at possible rebound but with no clear follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply post 3 AM ET, indicating a period of heightened uncertainty.
• Turnover spiked during the $4.82–$4.74 range, suggesting increased participation in the downward move.

OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $4.835 on 2025-12-31 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.734 on 2026-01-01 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $4.835 and low of $4.681. Total volume was 991,428.15 TRUMP and turnover reached $4,742,967.88 USD over 24 hours.

Structure & Key Levels

Price action showed a bearish breakdown from the $4.80–$4.83 consolidation into a sharp selloff after 3:15 AM ET, breaking below key support at $4.79 and finding a temporary base at $4.74. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged at $4.82, followed by a long lower shadow between $4.74 and $4.76, suggesting short-term indecision.

Technical Indicators

MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the session, with the line dipping below the signal line during the selloff. RSI fell into oversold territory near 30 around 5:30 AM ET but failed to spark a strong rebound. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 3 AM, reflecting heightened volatility during the sell-off.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked during the key breakdown under $4.80 and again at $4.74, with the largest single 5-minute volume at 274,598.26 TRUMP at 3:15 AM ET. Notional turnover aligned with price declines, showing strong correlation between falling prices and rising trading activity.

Fibonacci and Retracement Analysis

The selloff from $4.835 to $4.742 hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a possible temporary pause in the downward trend. A rebound from this area could test the 38.2% level at $4.77 or attempt to retest $4.80 as a near-term resistance.

Over the next 24 hours, a potential bounce from the $4.74–$4.75 range could test for short-term buying interest, but with RSI still in oversold territory and weak follow-through from recent lows, the path of least resistance may remain downward. Investors should watch for a potential break of $4.72 as a new trigger for further momentum.