Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) – October 5, 2025

• Price opened at $7.64 and closed at $7.84 over 24 hours, with a high of $7.96 and a low of $7.63.
• A bullish breakout above $7.86 was confirmed, supported by rising volume and a strong closing above prior resistance.
• RSI reached overbought levels near 70, suggesting potential short-term correction, while MACD remained positive with upward momentum.
• Volatility expanded with a widening of Bollinger Bands, indicating increased market activity and potential continuation.
• Notable bullish patterns included a higher high engulfing pattern on October 5 around 03:00 ET and a strong bullish continuation on 05:45 ET.

24-Hour Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 5, 2025, OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $7.64, reached a high of $7.96, and closed at $7.84 at 12:00 ET, with a low of $7.63 during the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 1,156,153.01 TRUMP and a notional turnover of $8,864,592.71 (calculated using average price of $7.84). The price action displayed a strong bullish bias with increasing volatility and momentum toward the end of the period.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed several key levels and patterns. A strong support area formed between $7.63 and $7.67, with a breakout above $7.72 confirming the bullish bias. A higher high engulfing pattern appeared at 03:00 ET, with a close at $7.81, suggesting strong buying pressure. Later, a bullish continuation pattern followed on 05:45 ET, as the price closed at $7.89, indicating sustained momentum. A doji-like formation occurred at 11:45 ET near $7.84, suggesting indecision, though bullish follow-through confirmed the trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price remained above the 20-EMA and 50-EMA for most of the day, with the 20-EMA rising in tandem with price action, reinforcing the bullish trend. The 50-EMA acted as a support level in the early hours. On the daily chart (assumed from context), the price stayed above the 50-SMA and 100-SMA, with the 200-SMA acting as a key long-term support at $7.63–$7.65.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained positive throughout the day, with a bullish crossover early in the morning and increasing divergence as the day progressed. The histogram showed strong positive momentum after 05:45 ET, indicating continued buying pressure. The RSI hit overbought territory around 70 near the end of the day, suggesting a potential pullback. However, as the price broke above the $7.86 resistance, RSI showed a delayed but strong confirmation of bullish strength.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 03:00 ET onward, with the upper band reaching $7.96 and the lower band dipping to $7.63 by the end of the 24-hour period. The price remained above the middle band for most of the session, suggesting strong upside momentum. A key contraction occurred just before the breakout at 03:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion—classic pre-breakout behavior.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 264,647.70 TRUMP at 05:45 ET and again to 73,840.429 TRUMP at 08:00 ET, with notional turnover reaching $587,840 at that time. These spikes aligned with the breakout and continuation phases, confirming the strength of the move. A divergence between volume and price occurred briefly at 11:45 ET when volume dropped but price remained above the 50-EMA. Overall, volume supported the bullish thesis.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from $7.63 to $7.96, the 38.2% level was around $7.79 and the 61.8% at $7.87, both of which the price tested and held above. The 15-minute chart also showed a retracement to $7.82, with a strong rebound toward $7.86–$7.89. These levels acted as dynamic support, reinforcing the validity of the rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on breakout confirmation using a combination of 20-EMA and Bollinger Band contractions. A buy signal would be generated when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band with volume above the 20-period average, followed by a stop-loss at the recent swing low. Given the strong momentum, a trailing stop could be used to lock in gains as the trend develops. The 61.8% Fibonacci level ($7.87) could serve as an initial target, with a longer-term target at $7.96 as the next psychological threshold.