Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) – November 13, 2025

Summary
• Price closed lower at $7.615 from an open of $7.445, reaching a high of $7.762 and a low of $7.370.
• Volatility expanded with a high-low range of $0.392, and momentum shifted multiple times.
• Volume spiked in early hours before tapering off, suggesting mixed participation.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $7.445 on November 12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $7.615 as of 12:00 ET on November 13. During the 24-hour window, the pair reached a high of $7.762 and a low of $7.370. Total volume was 5.24 million TRUMP, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $38.9 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed several key support and resistance levels. A strong support area emerged around $7.40–7.42 during the early part of the session, where the price consolidated briefly before breaking higher. Resistance was visible near $7.66–7.70, where the price stalled twice, forming potential bearish reversal patterns. A notable bullish engulfing pattern appeared at $7.40–7.42, followed by a large white candle at $7.60–7.65. A bearish doji also formed near $7.67, signaling indecision. These patterns suggest that the market is testing key psychological and previous swing levels.

Moving Averages

Using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, the 20 MA crossed above the 50 MA around $7.50–7.53, forming a short-term bullish crossover. However, the price failed to hold above that level for long, suggesting mixed momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was at $7.55, the 100-period MA at $7.53, and the 200-period MA at $7.49. The price remains above the 200 MA, indicating a slight long-term bullish bias, but the 50 MA is approaching from above, which could suggest consolidation ahead.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover in the early morning, with the histogram expanding slightly before narrowing as momentum waned. RSI briefly moved into overbought territory near 7.69–7.70 before retreating. During the late afternoon, RSI dipped into oversold territory near $7.42–7.43, suggesting potential buying interest. However, RSI failed to close above the 50 threshold on several occasions, indicating weak conviction in price direction. This suggests that while there are short-term pullbacks, the overall momentum remains mixed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as the price moved between the upper and lower bands, especially during the peak at $7.762 and the trough at $7.370. The price spent most of the session near the upper band, indicating bullish pressure at times, but also retreated into the middle band during consolidation. A contraction in band width was observed around $7.53–7.54 in the late afternoon, suggesting a potential breakout scenario. However, the price failed to follow through decisively, indicating caution among traders.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highest during the early part of the session, with a spike around $7.60–7.65, where a large candle formed. This volume confirmed the move higher. In contrast, volume was lower during the late afternoon and evening, especially during the consolidation phase near $7.53–7.55. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at $7.60–7.65 and then tapering off. However, a divergence appeared during the late afternoon, with price moving lower but volume staying low, suggesting a potential bearish divergence in momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $7.370 to $7.762, key levels were identified at the 38.2% retracement (~$7.58) and the 61.8% retracement (~$7.49). Price tested the 38.2% level twice, once forming a bearish reversal pattern. The 61.8% level acted as a support during the consolidation phase. On the daily chart, applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from $7.40 to $7.762, the 38.2% retracement (~$7.62) and 61.8% retracement (~$7.54) both saw activity, with the 61.8% level acting as a temporary support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy using a simple RSI-based rule—entering long when RSI < 30 and holding for five days—was found to be unprofitable for TRUMPUSDT over the 2022–2025 period. The total return of -48.6% and an annualized return of -43.5% indicate poor performance, with an average trade return of -3.6%. The maximum drawdown of 58.9% suggests the strategy was exposed to significant risk during downswings. To improve outcomes, consider implementing dynamic exits such as selling when RSI crosses above 50 or adding stop-loss rules (e.g., 8% loss) to manage downside risk. Additionally, combining this approach with trend filters like price above the 200-day moving average could enhance its effectiveness.