Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT)

• Price fell from $8.03 to $7.60 amid increased volume and bearish momentum.
• RSI approached oversold levels, suggesting potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply, reflecting rising volatility late in the session.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed in early evening ET.
• Volume spiked as price broke below key support at $7.80, confirming bearish sentiment.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) pair opened at $7.98 on October 6 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $8.03, a low of $7.57, and closed at $7.60 by 12:00 ET on October 7. The 24-hour trading session recorded a total volume of 2,205,526.53 TRUMP and a notional turnover of approximately $17.17 million.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern formed on the 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish bias, particularly during the late afternoon and early evening hours. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 14:00–14:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. Key support levels appear to have been tested at $7.80 and $7.70, with the former breaking decisively. A doji formed near $7.67, suggesting a potential reversal point. Resistance appears to be in the $7.85–$7.90 range, with a strong bearish breakdown from that level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, with price staying well below both lines, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages show similar bearish alignment, with the 200-period MA acting as a long-term bearish reference. Price remains in a clear downtrend, with no immediate sign of reversal from moving average dynamics.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover in the last 48 hours, with the histogram consistently in negative territory. This reinforces the downward price momentum. The RSI has dropped to near 30, indicating oversold conditions, but a sustained bounce is unlikely without a strong bullish reversal. The combination of bearish momentum and oversold RSI points to a potential short-term consolidation or reversal attempt, though the bearish bias remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after the bearish breakdown in the late afternoon, reflecting increased volatility. Price traded near the lower band for several hours, especially from 14:00 ET onward. The expansion suggests strong selling pressure and potential continuation of the downtrend, unless a strong bullish reversal occurs and price begins to trade closer to the mid-band.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged during the bearish breakdown in the late afternoon and early evening, confirming the strength of the downward move. The largest single candle by volume was the 15:15 ET candle, where price dropped from $7.67 to $7.63 on high volume. Notional turnover spiked in tandem with volume, showing no divergence and supporting the bearish trend. However, a divergence could emerge if volume fails to support further price declines.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent bearish swing from $8.03 to $7.57, the 61.8% level is at $7.67 and the 38.2% level is at $7.85. Price briefly bounced off the 61.8% level before resuming the downtrend. This suggests that the $7.67 area could serve as a temporary floor, but sustained support is unlikely without a reversal in momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on using a combination of RSI oversold conditions and a bearish engulfing pattern to identify potential short-term reversal opportunities. Given the current RSI reading near oversold levels and the recent bearish engulfing pattern, this strategy could trigger a long signal. However, the bearish bias and strong volume confirmation of the downtrend suggest the signal might be misleading unless accompanied by a strong bullish follow-through in the next 24 hours. In the context of today’s move, the strategy may not have provided a reliable signal due to the strong downward momentum. The test would require additional confirmation filters, such as a reversal candle closing above the 61.8% Fibonacci level or a bullish divergence in the RSI.