Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT)

• Price action drifted lower on high volume, with bearish momentum intensifying after 09:30 ET.
• RSI moved into oversold territory by the final hours, suggesting potential for near-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened through the session, reflecting increased volatility amid downward bias.
• Volume surged near session lows, aligning with price declines and indicating accumulation risk.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 8.51 and 8.46 marked key potential support clusters in the 24-hour window.

Market Opening and Session Summary

At 12:00 ET-1 on 2025-09-18, TRUMPUSDT opened at $8.69 and drifted lower throughout the 24-hour period, closing at $8.48 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The price reached a high of $8.72 and a low of $8.36, with bearish momentum dominating the latter half of the session. Total volume for the period was 1,819,319.576 TRUMP, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $14,869,226.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish flag pattern between 8.72 and 8.66 before breaking down to 8.54 and testing the 8.45 support level. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 09:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. Key support levels emerged around 8.51 and 8.46, both marked by tight consolidation and increasing volume. A small doji at 15:00 ET signaled indecision ahead of the final leg lower.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart confirmed the bearish trend, with the 20 MA dipping below the 50 MA to form a death cross in the afternoon hours. The RSI dipped below 30 in the final 4 hours, signaling oversold conditions and suggesting a potential bounce. The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 14:30 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened during the first half of the session, with price frequently touching the upper band before collapsing into the lower band by 12:00 ET. The volatility contraction near the end of the session suggested a potential reversal, as price hovered near the lower band without closing beneath it. The 20-period standard deviation expanded to 0.08, indicating heightened volatility compared to recent levels.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Volume remained elevated during the 12:00–04:00 ET window, peaking at 171,862.824 TRUMP at 15:15 ET, concurrent with the 8.48 close. Notional turnover surged by over 400% compared to the prior 12 hours, aligning with the price drop to 8.38. No significant divergence was observed between price and turnover, suggesting the sell-off was broadly supported. Accumulation appears possible as volume wicks downward during the final hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour move from 8.72 to 8.36, key levels were 8.59 (38.2%), 8.51 (50%), and 8.46 (61.8%). The price found strong support at the 61.8% level, with a minor bounce off 8.46. This suggests that a further decline below 8.46 could trigger a more significant reaction. The 50% level appears a critical pivot for sentiment in the coming session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy utilizes a combination of RSI and MACD crossovers to identify potential reversal points in volatile altcoins like TRUMPUSDT. Given the recent RSI oversold signal and the MACD death cross observed, a long bias could be triggered near 8.46–8.48. The Fibonacci 61.8% level acts as a natural risk management point for such a strategy. If the price closes above 8.53 tomorrow, it could validate the setup and suggest a medium-term bullish trend.