Market Overview: OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) – 24-Hour Price and Volume Analysis

• Price dropped sharply early in the session before stabilizing into a lateral consolidation.
• 7.43–7.48 emerged as a key support cluster, while 7.50–7.53 acted as initial resistance.
• Volume spiked during the early sell-off, but recent turnover lacks confirmation of strong directional bias.
• RSI and MACD suggest momentum is waning, with overbought levels untested and overbought territory unlikely in the short term.
• Volatility expanded during the session but has begun to contract, hinting at potential reversal patterns ahead.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) pair opened at 7.59 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 7.61, and a low of 7.37 before closing at 7.47 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The total 24-hour volume was 1,519,728.75 TRUMP, and the notional turnover was approximately 11,170,121.53 USD. The session featured a sharp decline early on, followed by a consolidation phase with multiple failed breakouts.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key breakdown from 7.50 to 7.43, with 7.43–7.48 emerging as a consolidation range. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing candle at 17:30 ET, suggesting continued downward pressure. A doji formed at 00:00 ET on 2025-09-26, indicating indecision after the sharp decline. Resistance levels appear at 7.50–7.53, with a failed test at 7.55 during the 08:45 ET candle.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA dipped below the 50-period MA, signaling bearish momentum. The 50-period MA now sits around 7.46, while the 20-period MA is slightly lower. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 7.48, above the 100-period MA at 7.45 and the 200-period MA at 7.42, suggesting a long-term bullish structure but short-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in early session, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped into the 45–50 range and has hovered near the midpoint, indicating no strong overbought or oversold signals. However, the divergence between price and RSI during the consolidation phase suggests weakening bearish momentum, which may hint at a potential reversal or continuation depending on volume.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded early in the session as the upper band hit 7.63 and the lower band dropped to 7.42. By the end of the session, volatility had contracted, with price staying within the bands. The recent consolidation between the lower and middle bands suggests a potential setup for a breakout or reversal pattern. A sustained close above 7.50 could signal a retest of the upper band as a new resistance level.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 17:30 ET, where over 123,000 TRUMP changed hands during a sharp decline from 7.45 to 7.46. Turnover spiked during this period as well, confirming the bearish momentum. However, after 02:00 ET, volume dropped significantly, indicating waning interest in both directions. Price / turnover divergence is evident in the 05:00–06:00 ET timeframe, where volume increased but price remained flat, hinting at a potential base formation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 17:30–02:00 ET consolidation, the 61.8% level is at 7.45, while the 38.2% level is at 7.47. A potential retest of the 61.8% retracement level may trigger a bounce or consolidation. On the daily chart, the 50% level of the recent move lies at 7.48, which aligns with the 50-period MA. This confluence could be a key level for near-term decision-making.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position when price closes above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and RSI moves above 50, with a stop-loss placed below the 20-period MA. A short position is initiated when price closes below the 50-period MA and RSI drops below 50, with a stop-loss above the 20-period MA. This strategy assumes that the 50-period MA acts as a dynamic support/resistance level in a ranging market, and RSI provides a momentum signal for trend initiation. The recent price behavior aligns with the conditions for a long setup as RSI has approached and tested the 50 level and the 50-period MA is closely aligned with the consolidation base.