Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• The 24-hour session for TRUMPUSDT opened at $8.37 and closed at $7.62 after a sharp drop, with a high of $8.41 and a low of $6.88.
• Momentum indicators show oversold conditions in the RSI, with a sharp decline in price coinciding with a volume spike of 4.8 million units.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as volatility surged during the 6:15–7:30 ET period, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
• A potential support level appears forming near $7.60–$7.62, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent drop aligning closely.
• Volume and turnover diverged in the final hours of the session, raising questions about short-term sustainability of the bounce.

The 24-hour period from 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21 to 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22 saw the TRUMPUSDT pair fall from an opening of $8.37 to a close of $7.62, with a high of $8.41 and a low of $6.88. Total volume reached 4.77 million units, with a notional turnover of approximately $37.8 million. The price action featured a sharp selloff after 6:15 ET, driven by a massive volume spike.

Structure and formations suggest that key support levels are forming around $7.60–$7.62, with the low of $6.88 acting as a potential psychological floor. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred near $8.20, and several long lower shadows in the $7.60–$7.70 range indicate buyers stepping in. A doji formed at $7.62, signaling potential exhaustion in the downward move. Resistance levels appear near $7.70 and $7.75, which are aligned with previous swing highs and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements.

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The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly in the early hours, reinforcing the sell-off. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, but the 100-period MA is beginning to cross lower, suggesting intermediate-term weakening. The MACD crossed into negative territory after 6:15 ET, with bearish divergence in the histogram. RSI reached an oversold level below 25 for several hours, indicating the potential for a near-term bounce, but with a lack of confirmation in price and volume.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after the 6:15 ET selloff, reflecting increased volatility and uncertainty. Price spent much of the session in the lower half of the bands, signaling bearish pressure. However, recent price action has approached the lower band again, suggesting potential for a rebound or consolidation. The contraction before the widening may act as a precursor to a reversal if buyers return.

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Volume and turnover diverged in the final hours of the session, with turnover declining despite a moderate price bounce. This divergence raises concerns about the strength of the short-term recovery. The largest volume spike occurred at 6:15 ET, coinciding with the price drop to $6.88. This suggests a large-scale selling event or panic unwind. The subsequent hours saw reduced volume, indicating a potential exhaustion of selling pressure.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the key $8.41–$6.88 move show the 61.8% level at $7.62, which coincides closely with the current price and the doji formation. This level appears critical for near-term sentiment. A break below $7.60 could extend the decline to the 78.6% level at $7.49, while a retest of $7.70 could indicate a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on short-term bounces off key support levels, such as $7.60–$7.62, combined with an RSI oversold signal and a narrowing Bollinger Band. Traders may look to enter long positions on a close above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed slightly below the recent low. Given the recent divergence in volume and turnover, this strategy should be used cautiously, with emphasis on confirming price action on the next upward move. The use of Fibonacci levels and MACD divergence could also enhance risk-reward profiles.

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