Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) - 2025-09-25

• The 24-hour price of TRUMPUSDT declined by approximately 9.6% to close at $7.60 from a high of $7.75.
• A large bearish candle formed early in the session, signaling a potential shift in sentiment.
• Volatility increased with a sharp drop below key support levels and high volume during the sell-off.
• RSI entered oversold territory, indicating possible short-term stabilization.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the break, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown was likely.

The 24-hour trading session for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) saw a strong bearish bias, with the pair opening at $7.73 and peaking at $7.75 before closing at $7.60 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the session was 1,115,363.03, with turnover reaching $8,604,209. The price action was driven by a sharp selloff during the late NY and early London hours, where the pair broke below key intraday support levels and consolidated in a downtrend.

Structure and price behavior indicated a bearish reversal pattern early in the session, with a large bearish candle forming during the 17:00–17:15 ET timeframe. A key support zone at $7.71 was tested and broken, leading to further downward movement. The price found a temporary floor at $7.55 before consolidation. Candlestick patterns such as bearish engulfing and a long lower shadow indicated strong selling pressure. A potential doji formed around $7.55, hinting at a possible reversal or at least a pause in the downward trend.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both turned bearish, with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line (death cross), reinforcing the downtrend. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30, suggesting that the price might consolidate or see a minor rebound in the near term. MACD showed bearish momentum with the histogram and signal line both in negative territory and trending downward. Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before the price broke through the lower band, indicating high volatility and a possible continuation of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci retracement levels were tested during the pullback, with the price finding resistance at 61.8% and 78.6% levels of the prior bullish move. The 50% level at $7.64 offered some temporary support before the price resumed its downward trajectory. Volume and turnover data were aligned with the bearish move, with the highest volume spike occurring during the 03:30–04:00 ET timeframe when the price dropped below $7.55. This suggests strong conviction in the bearish move, with no significant divergence observed between price and volume.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy under consideration involves entering a short position when the 50-period moving average crosses below the 20-period line (death cross) on the 15-minute chart, combined with a bearish engulfing or doji candle at a Fibonacci retracement level. The exit would be triggered by a RSI rebound above 30 or a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band, whichever comes first. This setup would aim to capture the initial phase of a bearish trend while managing risk with a stop-loss above the recent swing high. Given the recent alignment of key technical indicators and candlestick patterns, this strategy has a high probability of performing well in the current market environment, particularly if the bearish momentum continues.