Market Overview: Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) Daily Analysis

• Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) declined 24-hours, closing near the session low after forming bearish reversal patterns in late ET trading.
• Volatility surged mid-day with a 0.00098 range, followed by a sharp consolidation phase suggesting exhaustion.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped below 40, while volume spiked during the initial bearish move but waned afterward.
• Bollinger Bands contracted in the final hours, signaling a potential breakout or reversal in the near term.
• A key support level at 0.02580 may hold, with 0.02550 acting as a critical psychological threshold ahead of a larger test.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at 0.02583 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.02646, and closed at 0.02498 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. The pair formed a bearish candlestick structure with a long lower shadow and a weak close. Total volume was 36.6 million, and notional turnover reached $9.43 million, with most activity concentrated in the morning ET session.

Structure and formations suggest key resistance at 0.02635 and support at 0.02580, with a morning reversal pattern forming at the high. A long-legged doji at 0.02603 and a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.02591 indicate internal indecision. The price action appears to be testing the psychological 0.02550 level, where a sustained break below could trigger a larger move toward 0.02500.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover in the morning, confirming the downward trend. The 50/100/200-period daily moving averages are in a descending order, suggesting a medium-term bearish bias. MACD crossed below the zero line mid-day, with a bearish divergence visible in the final hours. RSI fell below 40, confirming oversold conditions, though the move has yet to trigger a meaningful rebound. Bollinger Bands saw a sharp contraction after 07:00 ET, indicating a potential for increased volatility in the next 24 hours.

Volume and notional turnover were highest in the morning, with a peak at 0.02635 before a consolidation phase. While price continued to decline after 19:00 ET, volume dropped sharply, suggesting reduced conviction among sellers. A divergence between price and turnover may signal a possible reversal, but confirmation is pending.

Fibonacci retracements on the morning swing (0.02591–0.02646) place key levels at 0.02619 (38.2%) and 0.02603 (61.8%), both of which have already been tested. A failure to reclaim these levels could reinforce bearish control.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential strategy could involve entering short positions when RSI drops below 40 and a bearish divergence is confirmed in MACD, with a stop-loss placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A take-profit target could be placed at the 0.02550 psychological level, with a second target at 0.02500 if the move is sustained. This approach would test the strength of the bearish trend and provide a defined risk-reward profile for the next 24 hours.