Market Overview for Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) – 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price fell from a morning high of $0.02357 to a 24-hour low of $0.02111.
• A massive 15-minute candle on 191500 ET triggered a sharp sell-off to $0.02321.
• Volume exceeded 50M at peak, but price action lacks bullish confirmation.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at $0.02255 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02202 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. The 24-hour high was $0.02372 and the low was $0.02111. Total volume traded was 158.2 million, with a notional turnover of approximately $3.7 million.

Structure & Formations

ROSEUSDT formed a bearish reversal pattern during the afternoon trade on 191500–203000 ET, with a strong downtrend breaking below a key intraday support of $0.02299. A long bearish candle on 201500 ET confirmed the breakdown. Price action appears to be consolidating near a psychological level of $0.0225–0.0227, which may offer short-term support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs are both bearish and trending lower, confirming the short-term downward bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200-day SMAs are all in alignment, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend for the broader timeframe.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the afternoon and has remained bearish for the past 3 hours, while the RSI hit an oversold level of 30 in the late evening. This may indicate short-term buying interest could return, but without a reversal candlestick, the bearish bias remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Price has spent the last 4 hours trading near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting low volatility and a possible rebound scenario. However, a break below the $0.0215–0.0217 range could trigger renewed bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically on 191500–194500 ET, with more than 13M contracts traded during those 90 minutes, confirming the bearish breakdown. However, notional turnover has declined in the last 2 hours despite continued price weakness, suggesting a lack of conviction among large players.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.02214 appears to have held twice in the last 6 hours, forming a potential short-term base. A close below that level may lead to a test of the 78.6% level at $0.0217.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy uses the Bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily chart as a buy signal, with a 3-day exit rule. This approach aligns with the importance of reversal patterns and momentum timing in this analysis. While no such pattern emerged in the latest 24 hours, the bearish breakdown suggests a reversal could still be forming in the near term. The strategy’s 18.4% annualized return suggests that capturing such reversal setups, when they occur, could be highly profitable for disciplined investors.