Market Overview: Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) on 2025-09-21

• ROSEUSDT opened at $0.03039 and closed at $0.02972, with a 24-hour high of $0.03046 and a low of $0.02903.
• The price declined in a bearish consolidation pattern, forming multiple bearish engulfing and inside candles during key selloffs.
• Volatility spiked in the early morning (ET) with a 15-minute drop to $0.02903, while volume surged to over 11 million.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum with RSI entering oversold territory, suggesting a possible near-term rebound.
• A strong bearish bias persisted, but Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band contractions hint at possible short-term rebounds.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at $0.03039 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02972 on 2025-09-21 at the same time. The 24-hour high reached $0.03046 while the low hit $0.02903. The total volume for the period was approximately 66,656,783.9 units, with a notional turnover of around $1,962,618. The price exhibited a bearish consolidation pattern amid increasing volatility.

Structure & Formations

ROSEUSDT formed a bearish consolidation during the early hours of the 24-hour period, characterized by multiple bearish engulfing and inside candles. A key support level emerged around $0.02950–$0.02970, which was tested multiple times. On the 15-minute chart, a bearish breakout from a rising wedge pattern confirmed downward bias. A notable bearish reversal pattern occurred at $0.03006–$0.02996, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels from a previous rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA crossed in a bearish “death cross” formation during the early hours, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50-EMA, 100-EMA, and 200-EMA on the daily chart also showed a bearish alignment, with price trading below all of them, indicating a stronger likelihood of continued bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early morning hours, with the histogram shrinking as the bearish momentum slowed slightly during the day. RSI, on the other hand, dropped into oversold territory near the close, suggesting a potential near-term rebound. However, without a strong bullish candle closing above key resistance levels, a breakout remains unlikely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early morning, with the price dropping to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands at $0.02903. A contraction phase followed in the midday hours, suggesting a possible consolidation ahead. The price has remained near the lower band for the majority of the day, indicating continued bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically in the early hours, especially during the 00:30–01:45 ET period, when the price fell to $0.02950 from $0.02993. This period saw one of the highest turnover volumes, with $651,363.7 units traded. A divergence between price and volume was observed in the latter part of the day, as volume decreased while price continued to decline, hinting at possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute rally from $0.02903 to $0.03046, price found resistance at the 61.8% level ($0.03019) and then the 78.6% level ($0.03042). The daily chart also showed a key 61.8% retracement level at $0.02970–$0.02980, which became a temporary support zone. A close above $0.02996 may trigger a pullback to these levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when the 20-EMA crosses below the 50-EMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and MACD divergence. The stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($0.03019), with a take-profit target at $0.02944 (38.2% Fibonacci level). This setup would capitalize on the recent bearish structure while mitigating risk from potential rebounds.