Market Overview for Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) – 24-Hour Summary (2025-11-01)

• Price tested and rebounded off a key support level near 0.0001063, forming a bullish reversal pattern.
• Volatility increased as the price broke above the upper Bollinger Band toward the end of the 24-hour window.
• A sharp rise in notional turnover occurred during the 02:00–03:00 ET window, coinciding with a 1.4% rally.
• Momentum is building as the RSI crossed above 50, signaling potential follow-through to the upside.
• Volume remains relatively subdued despite price gains, suggesting mixed conviction in the move higher.

NMRBTC opened at 0.0001075 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 0.0001172 before closing at 0.0001133 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.0001063 and 0.0001172 over the 24-hour period, with a total traded volume of 1,316.76 NMR and notional turnover of approximately 0.146 BTC. The price action shows signs of consolidation and potential bullish momentum following the midnight ET spike.

Structure & Formations

The price tested a key support level at 0.0001063 twice, forming a potential bullish reversal structure, particularly with the candle on 193000 ET that opened at 0.0001063 and closed at 0.0001075 after a minor pullback. This candlestick resembles a Bullish Hammer, suggesting a short-term bottoming process. Later in the session, a Bullish Engulfing pattern formed at 040000–041500 ET, with the close at 0.0001128, reinforcing the momentum shift. The price also reached a swing high at 0.0001172 during the 134500 ET candle, which followed a Bullish Flag formation from 0.0001133–0.0001169, indicating continuation potential.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bullish alignment, with the price above both. This supports a short-term bullish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average has recently crossed above the 200-period line, forming a Golden Cross, a historically bullish signal for medium-term traders. This suggests that the pair is in the early stages of a potential upswing, with the 100-period MA likely to confirm or reject this trend in the next 48 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line just after midnight, with a bullish histogram indicating strengthening momentum. The RSI rose from 48.5 to 59.8 over the 24-hour period, suggesting the pair is entering overbought territory. However, unlike in typical overbought scenarios, the RSI is still below 65, and the price is following with bullish follow-through, which could indicate a healthy continuation of the uptrend.

Bollinger Bands also show a volatility expansion from 0.0001063 to 0.0001172, with the price closing near the upper band, which is another confirmation of strong bullish pressure. A breakout could be on the cards if the pair closes above 0.0001148, the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the previous bearish swing.

Volume & Turnover

The notional turnover spiked significantly between 02:00–03:30 ET, reaching a peak of 91.82 NMR at 050000 ET, coinciding with the highest close at 0.0001135. This is a positive confirmation of the price action, as it indicates accumulation at higher levels. However, volume remains below average despite the price rally, which could suggest that the move is driven by a few large buyers rather than broad participation. Investors should watch for divergences between price and volume in the next 24 hours as a potential early warning signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 0.0001063 to 0.0001169, the price is currently sitting just below the 61.8% level at 0.0001134. If the uptrend continues, the next key resistance would be the 76.4% level at 0.0001157, which was previously tested and rejected during the 134500 ET candle. A breakout of this level could trigger a move toward the 0.0001178 target, aligning with the recent high. Meanwhile, the 38.2% level at 0.0001109 appears to be holding well as a minor support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the potential bullish signals identified in the above technical analysis—namely the Bullish Engulfing pattern, Golden Cross, and RSI divergence—a backtesting strategy could be constructed to evaluate how the pair historically responded to similar setups. However, an initial attempt to identify Hanging Man patterns via technical indicators failed due to a ticker symbol issue, as previously noted. Resolving this would allow for a more precise event-based backtest, especially if the Hanging Man occurs at a key retracement or moving average level. Until the correct symbol format is provided or event dates are identified, the hypothesis remains untestable, but the current setup offers a reasonable case for a medium-term bullish trade into the next swing high.