Market Overview for Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) – 2025-10-14

• Price traded in a tight range for most of the day but broke higher near the close.
• Volatility increased sharply in the last 4 hours with a 0.14% price increase.
• Low volume in the morning but a sharp rise in trading activity after 18:00 ET.
• No clear bullish or bearish candlestick patterns emerged in the 15-minute chart.
• Price appears to be consolidating near a key resistance level ahead of a potential breakout.

Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) opened at $0.000119 on October 13, 2025, and traded between $0.0001121 and $0.0001212 before closing at $0.0001195 on October 14. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,126.46 NMR, with a notional turnover of approximately $0.2517 million, based on Bitcoin price assumptions.

The 15-minute chart shows a long period of consolidation followed by a late-day rally. The price action suggests a possible accumulation phase, with buyers stepping in after 18:00 ET to push the price back to key resistance levels. A small bullish engulfing pattern formed around 20:30 ET, signaling potential short-term buying interest. However, the pattern remains unconfirmed unless the price holds above $0.0001204 in the next session. The formation of doji candles during the early part of the day also indicates indecision among market participants, suggesting traders may be waiting for a catalyst to break the current range.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are closely aligned in the 15-minute chart, suggesting a flat trend. The 50-period moving average on the daily chart is currently above the 100- and 200-period lines, indicating a slight bearish bias over the longer term. The MACD has just crossed above the signal line, which may indicate a short-term bullish momentum shift. The RSI, while not in overbought or oversold territory, has shown a steady climb toward the 55 level, indicating growing bullish pressure.

Bollinger Bands have shown a moderate expansion in the last 4 hours, reflecting increased volatility as the price approaches the upper band. This suggests that the market could be on the verge of a breakout or a retest of the lower band. The upper Bollinger Band currently sits around $0.0001212, and if this level is taken out, it may serve as a trigger for a short-term rally. For the next 24 hours, a continuation of the consolidation phase is probable, but a decisive break above or below key levels could lead to a more directional move. Traders should watch for divergence between price and volume, as this may signal a potential reversal.

The 15-minute and daily candlestick charts highlight a mix of consolidation and mild bullish momentum. Key resistance levels around $0.0001204 and $0.0001212 appear to be in play, with support expected near $0.0001190. The Fibonacci retracement levels from the last major swing (from $0.0001121 to $0.0001212) show that the current price is approaching the 61.8% level, which could act as a dynamic support or resistance depending on the next candle’s action. The late-day rally suggests that the market may be testing the upper boundary of the consolidation range, with the possibility of a breakout if the price holds above $0.0001204. If not, a pullback to test the 38.2% Fibonacci level could be in store. The overall technical setup supports a neutral to slightly bullish outlook, provided volume increases confirm the next directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a potential Bullish Engulfing pattern observed in the late part of the session, a 1-day-hold backtest using this pattern could offer insights into its profitability. For accurate backtesting, it is essential to confirm the exact ticker symbol (e.g., “BINANCE:NMRBTC”) and specify whether the backtest should use the daily close or another price type. Once confirmed, the backtest can be conducted using historical data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14. This pattern-based strategy may complement the current technical setup, particularly if the price action confirms the pattern in the next session, providing a potential entry trigger for traders.