Market Overview for Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) – 2025-09-24

• Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) dropped to a 24-hour low of $0.0001412, but failed to break below key support.
• Price tested resistance at $0.0001454 near the 24-hour high, with bearish divergence in RSI and volume suggesting possible rejection.
• Volatility expanded in the late evening, with Bollinger Bands widening, indicating potential for a breakout or breakdown.
• Fibonacci levels at $0.0001421 (38.2%) and $0.0001454 (61.8%) appear to be key pivots for short-term direction.

NMRBTC opened at $0.0001484 (12:00 ET − 1) and reached a 24-hour high of $0.0001533, with a low of $0.0001412 before closing at $0.0001454 (12:00 ET). Total volume amounted to 6,276.26 NMR, and notional turnover was approximately $0.93 BTC, indicating moderate liquidity and active price discovery over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure showed a bearish trend, with several rejection patterns forming near $0.0001454. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared between 2345–0000 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. A morning doji at 0930 ET and a late-night doji at 0545 ET suggested indecision. The key support levels are at $0.0001421, $0.0001412, and $0.0001400, while resistance levels are at $0.0001454, $0.0001482, and $0.0001510.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both showed bearish crossovers, with the price sitting below both. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA slightly above the 200-period MA, suggesting a mixed trend. Short-term bearish bias dominates, with the price expected to test lower support levels in the near future.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the early morning hours, indicating bearish momentum. RSI bottomed out near 35, suggesting the pair may be oversold but not yet in a strong reversal phase. A divergence in RSI and price appeared as the pair bounced off $0.0001412, indicating potential bearish continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly after 2100 ET, with Bollinger Bands expanding from a narrow contraction earlier in the day. Price has remained near the upper band for a brief period but has since pulled back toward the middle band. The widening bands indicate a potential breakout phase, with $0.0001454 currently acting as the upper bound and $0.0001421 as the lower bound.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred at 2115 ET, where a large bullish candle formed with 1,078.13 NMR traded, pushing the price to $0.0001533. However, the price failed to hold above that level, suggesting bearish exhaustion. A second large volume spike occurred at 0330 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop to $0.0001443, indicating bearish control during that period. Turnover diverged from price at 0315 ET, where the price moved lower despite relatively low volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were applied to the 24-hour swing from $0.0001533 to $0.0001412, with the 38.2% retracement at $0.0001453 and 61.8% at $0.0001473. The price currently sits near the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible consolidation phase or a reversal if bullish volume picks up.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the bearish engulfing patterns observed in the late evening and early morning sessions, combined with RSI divergence. A sell entry could be triggered on a close below the 20-period moving average with confirmation from a bearish divergence in RSI. Stops could be placed just above the most recent swing high at $0.0001482, with a target near $0.0001421. The combination of volume spikes and Fibonacci levels at $0.0001454 and $0.0001421 offers a clear risk-to-reward structure for short-term directional bias.