Market Overview for Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) – 2025-09-23

• NMRBTC opened at $0.0001325 and closed at $0.0001469, with a high of $0.00017 and a low of $0.0001281.
• The pair experienced a sharp rise from $0.0001489 to $0.00017 between 08:15 ET and 08:30 ET, signaling strong buying pressure.
• Volatility surged during the early hours of 08:15 ET due to a large 15-minute candle with an 8,790% increase in volume.
• Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD showed overbought conditions during the bullish breakout.
• The 24-hour turnover reached $38,898.40, with the largest volume spike at 08:15 ET.

Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) opened at $0.0001325 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22 and closed at $0.0001469 at the same time on 2025-09-23. The 24-hour high was $0.00017, while the low was $0.0001281. Total volume traded was 38,898.40 contracts, with a notional turnover of $5,880.23 during the reporting window. The pair demonstrated a notable reversal from bearish consolidation to a sharp bullish breakout.

Structure & Formations

NMRBTC exhibited a key support level around $0.0001284, where the price consolidated for nearly three hours before breaking out. Between 03:45 ET and 04:30 ET, the price formed a bullish reversal pattern as it reversed from a low of $0.0001294 to a high of $0.0001306. At 08:15 ET, a large bullish candle confirmed a breakout above prior resistance levels near $0.0001462, suggesting a possible shift in sentiment toward longs.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover at $0.0001390 around 06:00 ET. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period line, reinforcing the bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was trading at $0.0001365, while the 100-period MA was slightly bearish at $0.0001340. This suggests a possible continuation of the rally if the 200-period MA at $0.0001310 is not retested.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive from 06:00 ET onward, with the line crossing above the signal line and showing sustained bullish momentum. The RSI hit overbought territory near 75 during the 08:15–09:00 ET window, indicating that the pair may experience a retracement. However, the MACD’s strength suggests the bullish move could continue unless a bearish divergence appears in the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

The price broke out of the upper Bollinger Band at 08:15 ET after a period of consolidation. The width of the bands had been contracting since 03:45 ET, signaling a potential breakout. The move above the upper band confirms an expansion in volatility and reinforces the likelihood of further gains. Traders may watch for a pullback to the mid-band or a retest of the upper band as potential entry points.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 08:15 ET with 15,085.09 contracts, followed by a notable drop at 09:15 ET. Despite the drop in volume after the breakout, the price continued to trade above the previous highs, indicating strong conviction in the bullish move. The notional turnover peaked at $5,880.23, aligning with the volume high at 08:15 ET. No significant divergence between volume and price was observed during the 24-hour period.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the 08:15 ET low of $0.0001462 to the 08:30 ET high of $0.0001478 swing, the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level is at $0.0001469, which coincides with the current close. This suggests the pair may retest this level before either consolidating or continuing higher. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retrace of the recent bearish swing is near $0.0001340, which could act as a short-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for NMRBTC would involve using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart to enter long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA. Stops could be placed below the recent swing low near $0.0001284, with a take-profit target near the next Fibonacci level or the upper Bollinger Band. Given the current MACD and RSI readings, the strategy appears to align with the breakout observed at 08:15 ET. However, due to the overbought RSI and high volatility, additional filters like volume confirmation or divergence checks may be needed to avoid false breakouts in future sessions.