Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether on 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price traded in a tight range overnight, forming a consolidation pattern around 0.000655–0.000665.
• Strong volume expansion occurred midday, particularly between 21:00–22:30 ET, coinciding with a price rebound.
• RSI suggested neutral momentum, avoiding overbought or oversold extremes, while MACD showed a flattening trend.

Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) opened at 0.000662 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.000658 by 12:00 ET the next day. The pair reached a high of 0.000695 and a low of 0.000608 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 5,837,071,916.0 with notional turnover of approximately $3,918,541. The price remains in a tight trading range with no clear breakout, though midday volatility hints at potential trend setup.

Structure & Formations

Price action suggests a bearish consolidation pattern, with repeated attempts to break above 0.000665 failing during the 21:00–22:30 ET window. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 20:30–21:00 ET, followed by a bullish hammer at 23:45–00:00 ET, signaling potential indecision. Support is forming around 0.000655–0.000657, while 0.000665 acts as a short-term resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging around 0.00066, suggesting a potential shift in bias. The 50-period line appears to act as a minor resistance, with price testing but not crossing it. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA remains distant as a long-term reference, while the 50- and 100-period lines have shifted slightly downward, indicating a weak bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD appears to flatten around the zero line, with no clear histogram divergence, suggesting neutral momentum. RSI fluctuated between 40–60 during the 24-hour period, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, the RSI low of ~38 at 21:45 ET suggests short-term oversold conditions, which may trigger a rebound, but not strongly enough to reverse the trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 20:30–22:30 ET window, with price touching the lower band before rebounding toward the middle band. The bands were relatively narrow overnight and widened during the midday move, indicating increased uncertainty or potential trend continuation. Price remains near the lower half of the band, suggesting potential for a bounce back toward the center.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 20:30–21:15 ET window, aligning with a key price decline and bearish engulfing pattern. Notional turnover reached a peak of $24,840 at 21:00 ET. Volume during the overnight consolidation was relatively lower, indicating reduced conviction in the current range. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, suggesting alignment between price action and trader sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% retracement level at 0.000655 appears to act as a strong support area, holding price multiple times during the 24-hour period. A 38.2% retracement at 0.000666 marks a resistance level that has been tested but not broken. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the previous week’s move is near 0.000660, aligning with current price activity and suggesting consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on candlestick patterns like “Bullish-Engulfing” and “Bearish-Engulfing” can offer valuable insights into potential entry and exit points for traders. These patterns often signal short-term reversals and are most effective in trending markets with clear volume confirmation. For NOTUSDT, applying this strategy would involve scanning for confirmed engulfing patterns near key Fibonacci levels and evaluating their success rate against stop-loss and take-profit thresholds. If this strategy were tested on a validated dataset, it could help refine the pattern’s predictive power.