Market Overview for Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) – October 12, 2025

• Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) fell to a 24-hour low of $0.2408 before rebounding, closing near 0.2490 amid bearish momentum.
• The RSI indicates oversold conditions, while volume and turnover remain moderate, with no clear divergence.
• A key support level appears near $0.2400–0.2450, and resistance is forming around $0.2520–0.2550.
• Volatility expanded during the downward move but has since contracted, suggesting potential consolidation.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the final hours, hinting at a short-term reversal attempt.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at $0.2732 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and fell to a 24-hour low of $0.2408 before closing at $0.2490 at 12:00 ET on October 12. The pair traded between $0.2408 and $0.2828 over the past 24 hours. Total volume amounted to approximately 14,262,499.9 units, with a notional turnover of roughly $3,464,256.00.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a bearish bias, with a sharp decline following a bullish breakout attempt. A key support level appears to have formed between $0.2400 and $0.2450, with the price consolidating near this area before showing signs of a potential reversal. Notable bearish patterns include a hanging man and a dark cloud cover, while a bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the final hours of the session, suggesting a short-term reversal attempt. A doji formed near the $0.2500 level, indicating indecision among market participants.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the price trading below both. This suggests that the short-term trend remains bearish. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are all bearish, with the price below all of them, reinforcing the downtrend narrative.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative throughout most of the session, with a bearish crossover occurring in the early hours. The histogram showed a narrowing trend as the price consolidated toward the end of the session, suggesting that bearish momentum is easing. The RSI dropped into oversold territory during the selloff, reaching a low of approximately 28. It has since shown a modest rebound to around 42, indicating a potential exhaustion of the short-term sell-off.

Bollinger Bands show a noticeable expansion during the sharp decline, with the price breaking below the lower band. Since the price has since re-entered the band range, the volatility contraction suggests a potential reversal or consolidation phase. The middle band currently sits near $0.2480, with the price hovering slightly above it.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the downward leg, particularly around the key support area of $0.2400–0.2450, with notional turnover exceeding $68,000 at one point. However, volume has since declined as the price has bounced, which supports the idea of a potential short-term reversal. There is no clear divergence between price and volume; the increase in volume during the decline aligns with the bearish move, while the decrease in volume during the rebound supports the idea of a pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 15-minute swings and the major daily moves highlight key areas of interest. The 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish leg is near $0.2520, which coincides with a recent resistance level. The 38.2% retracement is near $0.2490, the current price level. These levels could act as potential turning points for near-term price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy using a combination of RSI and MACD crossover could provide a framework for identifying short-term reversals. For example, a long entry could be triggered when RSI crosses into oversold territory and the MACD shows a bullish crossover, while a stop-loss could be placed below a key support level. Over the past 24 hours, such a signal would have appeared near $0.2400–0.2450 when RSI dropped to 28 and the MACD histogram began to narrow. This combination of signals could offer a probabilistic edge in a consolidating market, especially if the price holds above the 61.8% retracement level.