Market Overview: Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) declined over the last 24 hours, closing near a key support level with bearish momentum.
• A strong drop occurred post-20:00 ET, reaching 0.3339, followed by a modest rebound.
• Volatility expanded during the decline, but volume remained moderate.
• RSI entered oversold territory, hinting at possible near-term reversal or further consolidation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and a deep pullback suggest potential for a test of psychological support at 0.3350–0.3380.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at $0.3498 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3440 by the same time on 2025-10-07. The 24-hour session saw a high of $0.3508 and a low of $0.3339, reflecting a sharp bearish move. Total volume was 2,378,645.7, while notional turnover amounted to $809,581.70. The price action shows a breakdown below key prior levels, with bearish control dominating the session.

Structure & Formations

The chart shows a strong bearish bias following the breakdown of a prior support level at 0.3420, which turned into resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 20:00 ET as the price fell to 0.3339, indicating a shift in sentiment. A long lower wick at 0.3339 suggests buyers attempted a defense, but the session closed near the low. The price has since found temporary support at 0.3350–0.3380, which could be the next battleground.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, both below the price. On a broader scale, the 50/100/200-day averages are also bearish, with the price below all three. This suggests the short-term and intermediate trend remain downward, with no sign of a reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line with bearish divergence, reinforcing the downward momentum. RSI has entered oversold territory at 26, which may trigger a short-term bounce. However, given the weak volume and the breakdown of key support, any rally should be treated cautiously. Overbought conditions have not occurred, keeping the market in a bearish phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the sharp decline, with the bands widening as the price dropped to the lower band. The price has since rebounded but remains within the lower half of the bands, indicating a potential range-bound or consolidation phase. A break above the midline may signal a temporary pause in the downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the drop at 0.3339, confirming the breakdown. However, the volume was moderate relative to the depth of the move, which may suggest a lack of conviction in the bearish move. Turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking during the breakdown and then declining. No significant divergence was observed, but the lack of strong volume may indicate limited follow-through on the downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the high of $0.3508 to the low of $0.3339 show that the price closed near the 61.8% retracement level at $0.3420. A rebound from this level could test the 50% retracement at $0.3429 next. On a daily chart, the same 61.8% level at $0.3420 could act as a short-term support, providing an opportunity for a bounce or a continuation of the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.3420) on increased volume, with a stop-loss placed just above the 50% retracement (0.3429) and a target aligned with the 38.2% retracement (0.3450). This approach would aim to capture bearish momentum while managing risk on a pullback. The recent breakdown of 0.3420 and the bearish engulfing pattern make this a relevant entry point. The RSI reading in oversold territory could suggest limited room for immediate recovery, aligning with the bearish setup.