Market Overview for Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) traded in a 0.3248–0.3747 range, closing near mid-range after a strong but volatile session.
• Momentum shifted multiple times, with RSI indicating overbought levels twice and oversold once.
• Volume surged during key resistance breaks and diverged near key support levels, hinting at mixed market sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion in early trading, signaling heightened volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appeared near session high, while a bullish reversal formed near session low.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at 0.3458 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3266 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.3747 and a low of 0.3248. The 24-hour session saw a total volume of 6,054,237.9 and notional turnover of $1,944,773.49 (calculated using volume × average close). The pair experienced a volatile session marked by multiple reversals and key support/resistance interactions.

The structure of the 24-hour session was dominated by a sharp rally from 0.3458 to 0.3747, followed by a retracement down to 0.3396 and a further pullback to 0.3248. This created a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.3396 that failed as support, leading to a test of 0.3248. Notable candlestick formations included a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the rally, indicating a potential top, and a bullish reversal near the 0.3248 low. The latter was followed by a failed attempt to rebound, with a doji forming at 0.3317, signaling indecision.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a crossover of the 20-period and 50-period lines twice during the session, once supporting the bullish move and once confirming the bearish reversal. Daily MAs (50, 100, and 200) showed a bearish alignment at session end, with the 50-period line below the 100- and 200-period lines. The 20-period MA held firm as a dynamic resistance level during the retracement phase.

The MACD showed a strong bearish divergence during the late-stage rally before the 0.3248 low, indicating weakening momentum. RSI hit overbought levels near 0.3747 and oversold levels near 0.3248, with a divergence on the bearish side reinforcing the sell signal. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the initial rally, then contracted during the 0.3317 doji, followed by a breakout to the downside. Price action stayed below the lower band for a period, signaling weak sentiment.

Volume increased during the key resistance breaks at 0.3747 and 0.3396 but dropped off during the doji at 0.3317, suggesting a lack of conviction. Turnover diverged during the final leg to 0.3248, with volume surging but price failing to follow through on a rebound, hinting at potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci retracements aligned with key turning points, with the 61.8% level at 0.3396 acting as a failed support and the 38.2% level at 0.3547 providing a temporary floor before the next leg lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on using Fibonacci retracement levels in combination with candlestick patterns and volume spikes. It identifies 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels as critical decision points and uses volume confirmation for entry or exit signals. For example, a long entry is considered near 38.2% on a bullish reversal with increasing volume, while a short entry is triggered near 61.8% on bearish confirmation. This aligns with the observed behavior in the 0.3747–0.3248 range, where the 61.8% level failed as support and the 38.2% level acted as a temporary floor.