Market Overview for Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• Price action shows a sharp 24-hour decline from 0.318 to 0.298, with oversold RSI and weak volume.
• A bearish breakdown under key support at 0.315 appears confirmed with bearish engulfing patterns.
• Volatility has expanded with wide Bollinger bands, suggesting a potential reversal or continuation.
• Turnover spiked during the downward leg but volume has cooled, signaling potential exhaustion.
• 20-EMA has crossed below 50-EMA, reinforcing bearish momentum and a potential trend shift.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at 0.3161 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3033 the following day at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session saw a high of 0.318 and a low of 0.2972. Total volume amounted to 2,537,186.8 units, while notional turnover reached approximately $794,475.5 (assuming $1 = 1 USDT).

The price action over the past 24 hours indicates a strong bearish bias, with a significant breakdown from the 0.315–0.317 resistance cluster into a new 24-hour low. A clear bearish engulfing pattern formed around 2025-09-24 21:45 ET, confirming the downward shift. Additionally, a doji formed near 0.3065–0.307 on 2025-09-25 04:15 ET, suggesting indecision and potential short-term consolidation ahead.

The 20-EMA has crossed below the 50-EMA, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Prices have closed below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA for the majority of the session. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-day EMAs appear to have aligned in a strong bearish convergence, with the 200-day EMA further reinforcing a longer-term bearish trend. A retest of the 0.312–0.314 zone may occur, but a failure to hold above 0.305–0.306 could extend the move toward 0.294–0.295.

The RSI (14-period) has moved into the oversold territory, dipping below 30 at one point and showing potential for a near-term bounce. However, the RSI divergence (higher highs in price, lower highs in momentum) suggests that any rebound may be weak. MACD (12,26,9) has remained negative for most of the session, with the histogram shrinking near the close, indicating a slowdown in the downward momentum. Bollinger Bands have expanded sharply due to the large price move, with the current close near the lower band, suggesting possible exhaustion or a reversal.

A notable Fibonacci level at 0.2987 (61.8% of the 0.318–0.2972 move) has been tested and briefly rejected, which may now act as a temporary floor. Traders are advised to watch for a breakout above 0.305–0.306 or a retest of the 0.294–0.295 area as critical junctures.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI levels, a potential short-term long bias could emerge on a rebound above the 0.3033–0.3042 consolidation area. A backtest strategy might involve entering long at the 0.305–0.306 zone with a stop-loss below the recent 0.2982 low and a take-profit target aligned with the 0.3132 Fibonacci 38.2% level. This strategy leverages both price action and Fibonacci retracement as confirmation signals, with the 50-EMA acting as a dynamic support level for risk management.