Market Overview for Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) on 2025-09-21

• Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) formed a bearish reversal pattern at 0.33 and fell to 0.3275 before stabilizing near 0.33.
• Volume surged during the 0.3275 dip, confirming bearish sentiment but failed to push lower past 0.3269.
• RSI overbought levels near 0.3300 were rejected, with a potential 61.8% Fibonacci target at 0.3280.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the early 12-hour period, signaling heightened volatility.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at 0.33 on 2025-09-20 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.3302 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21, with a high of 0.3406 and a low of 0.3256. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 982,042.7 units, and notional turnover reached $315,829. The pair reversed from 0.3406 after a sharp 0.33–0.3275 correction.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.3300 and a morning star at 0.3275–0.3280, suggesting indecision between buyers and sellers. A key support level emerged at 0.3275–0.3278, which held for several candles but failed to attract strong bullish follow-through. Resistance appears at 0.3309–0.3312, where the price stalled three times before retreating.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed near 0.3289 during the late hours of 09-21, signaling a potential short-term bearish crossover. The daily 50/100/200 EMA structure showed a flatter configuration, with the 50 EMA at 0.3295 slightly above the 100 EMA (0.3289), indicating a possible consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative as price approached 0.3275–0.3280, reflecting weakening bullish momentum. RSI hovered near 30–35 in the morning, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to push above 45, which could suggest limited upside potential unless volume surges at 0.3295–0.3300. The RSI divergence between 0.3275 and 0.3285 may hint at a potential short-term rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the early 12 hours, with the price oscillating near the lower band at 0.3275–0.3278. After the 0.3302 close, the bands began to contract slightly, suggesting a potential period of reduced volatility. Price currently trades within the mid-range of the bands, with no strong signs of a breakout from the 0.3275–0.3320 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 0.3275–0.3282 consolidation phase, confirming bearish pressure. Notional turnover increased correspondingly, with the highest turnover recorded at 0.3285–0.3300. However, a divergence appears as price attempts to rise above 0.3290 with relatively weak volume, indicating limited conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.3256 to 0.3406 swing are at 38.2% (0.3318), 50% (0.3333), and 61.8% (0.3347). The price has struggled to break past 0.3312, suggesting the 38.2% level is a critical area to watch. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement from the 0.3275 low to 0.3302 high is at 0.3289, which the price may retest in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions when the 15-minute RSI dips below 30 and the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed above the 50-period EMA. Long positions could be triggered when the RSI crosses above 60 and volume increases, targeting the 38.2% retracement level. The recent price behavior aligns with this structure, particularly the 0.3275 consolidation and the failed 0.3302–0.3309 test.