Market Overview for Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) as of 2025-09-22

• NEXOUSDT fell 0.35% in 24 hours to close at 1.244, with a major bearish swing from 1.288 to 1.232.
• Strong volume surges occurred during the 06:15–07:45 ET window, coinciding with a breakdown below key support.
• RSI hit oversold levels below 30, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce, though momentum remains bearish.
• Volatility expanded early morning ET, with price trading within Bollinger Bands but trending lower.
• A bullish engulfing pattern may form if price closes above 1.251 in the next 24 hours.

NEXOUSDT opened at 1.282 (12:00 ET – 1) and closed at 1.244 (12:00 ET) after a 24-hour low of 1.232 and a high of 1.288. Total volume reached 257,248.55, and notional turnover was approximately $318,613. The pair experienced a bearish consolidation phase, with downward momentum intensifying after 06:15 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below key support at 1.251 and has since remained below that level, with 1.244 becoming a new short-term floor. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early morning session (06:15–06:45 ET), confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji appeared at 1.232, indicating indecision and potential for a reversal. The 1.244 level may hold as near-term support if bullish volume returns.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was below the 50-period MA for most of the session, confirming a bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA on the daily chart, reinforcing the downtrend. RSI hit oversold territory below 30 in the early morning, but MACD remained negative, suggesting bearish momentum is still intact. A cross above the 20-period MA could indicate short-term recovery.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands widened during the morning sell-off, indicating increased volatility. Price traded within the bands but closed near the lower band, reinforcing bearish pressure. Fibonacci retracements from the recent swing high (1.288) to low (1.232) show 38.2% at 1.259 and 61.8% at 1.247—both levels failed to hold. A bounce above 1.251 could trigger a retest of 1.259 before a potential resumption of the downtrend.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the 06:15–07:45 ET window, coinciding with a sharp price decline to 1.232. Notional turnover rose in parallel, confirming bearish conviction. In contrast, volume during the 12:00–15:00 ET window was relatively subdued despite price hovering near key levels, suggesting a lack of buyers at current levels. A divergence between rising price and declining volume during attempted rallies may indicate weakening bullish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when RSI falls below 30 and price breaks below the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss set just above the nearest resistance (1.251) and a target at the next Fibonacci level (1.232). If a bullish engulfing pattern forms on a 15-minute candle with above-average volume, a long trade could be triggered, with a stop below the engulfing candle’s low and a target at 1.251. This approach would aim to capture both the continuation of bearish momentum and potential reversals, depending on the pattern and context.