Market Overview for Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) – September 26, 2025

• Price tested key support near $0.00395–0.00398 before rebounding
• Volatility spiked during the early morning, followed by consolidation
• MACD divergence and RSI overbought levels suggest potential near-term correction
• Volume surged during the sell-off, confirming bearish momentum

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at $0.003968 on September 25 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.004119 on September 26 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.004207 and a low of $0.00392. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 56,633,138, and notional turnover reached approximately $237,000. The pair exhibited a sharp rebound from the 0.00395–0.00398 support zone, suggesting a short-term reversal in momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.00405 and a bullish hammer near the 0.00392 low, suggesting a tug-of-war between short-term bulls and bears. A key support level appears to have formed at 0.00395–0.00398, with resistance re-emerging at 0.00413 and 0.00419. A doji at 0.004199 hinted at indecision, and a potential bullish engulfing pattern at the 0.004119 level could confirm a short-term bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-period MA remains bearish, suggesting the move may not be sustainable. On the daily chart, price remains above the 200-period MA, but the 50-period MA has begun to flatten, hinting at a potential shift in trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive after the rebound, confirming a short-term reversal, while RSI hit overbought territory (70+) at 0.004207, suggesting a pullback could be imminent. A bearish divergence in MACD during the early morning sell-off indicated potential weakness in the downtrend, but bullish momentum has since regained control.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after the 0.00392 low, with price bouncing near the lower band before rising toward the mid-band. The widening bands suggest increasing uncertainty, but the failure to break above the upper band indicates resistance is still intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sell-off from 0.00405 to 0.00392, confirming bearish sentiment. However, the subsequent rebound occurred on relatively lower volume, suggesting the move may lack conviction. The surge in turnover during the early morning and afternoon hours aligned with the price action, supporting the validity of the bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.00409–0.00410) acted as a key pivot during the morning session, before the price extended to 0.00413–0.00419. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement at 0.00406–0.00408 showed strong support, reinforcing the case for a short-term bullish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.00409–0.00410) with a stop loss below 0.00405 and a take profit at 0.00413–0.00419, leveraging the confirmed bullish momentum. Alternatively, a bearish trade could be triggered on a rejection above 0.00420, with a stop loss above 0.00423 and a target at 0.00415–0.00410. This setup relies on confirming price action at key levels, combined with divergences in MACD and RSI for improved risk-adjusted returns.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see renewed testing of the 0.00413–0.00419 resistance zone. A break above 0.00420 could signal a deeper bullish reversal, but a failure to hold above 0.00405 may invite renewed bearish pressure. Investors should remain cautious of divergences in RSI and volume as early signs of reversal.