Market Overview for Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• Price declines by -1.46% over 24 hours, closing at 0.004328 after testing key resistance levels.
• Volatility spikes mid-session with a large bearish candle (17:15 ET) and a high volume of 34.5 million.
• RSI near 40 suggests moderate bearish momentum, while Bollinger Bands show a contraction near the close.
• Volume and turnover remain aligned with price direction, no significant divergence observed.
• Key support levels at 0.004323 and 0.004286 offer potential near-term floor if bearish pressure continues.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at 0.004486 (12:00 ET – 1), reached a high of 0.004547, and closed at 0.004328 by 12:00 ET the next day. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 90.1 million, while turnover (notional value) amounted to approximately $384.8 thousand. Price action reflects bearish pressure, with key resistance levels broken and a potential support zone forming near 0.004323.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a bearish bias, with a strong rejection at the 0.004547 level and a subsequent breakdown to 0.004328. A large bearish candle at 17:15 ET (volume 34.5 million) acted as a catalyst for the downward move. A series of lower highs and lower lows from 18:00 ET onward confirm a bearish trend. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at 17:15 ET and a doji near 0.004323, indicating indecision at key support. Resistance levels include 0.004470 (broken), 0.004490, and 0.004511. Immediate support is found at 0.004323 and 0.004286.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 20-period MA, reinforcing a downtrend. The 200-period MA on daily data sits well above current price action, indicating a long-term bearish bias. A retest of the 50-period MA may offer a potential entry point for short-term contrarian bidders.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned negative and crossed below the signal line, reflecting a bearish momentum shift. RSI stands at 40, slightly below midline, suggesting moderate bearish pressure but not extreme. No overbought or oversold conditions are observed at this time, and momentum appears to be stabilizing slightly near the 0.004323 level. A further move below 0.004286 may trigger a stronger bearish RSI response.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly near the end of the 24-hour period, indicating a potential contraction in volatility and possible breakout conditions. Price closed near the lower band at 0.004323, suggesting a bearish bias. A sustained move below the lower band could confirm a breakdown, while a rebound from this level might signal a short-term bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively consistent throughout the session, with a notable spike at 17:15 ET (volume 34.5 million) coinciding with the breakdown to 0.004328. Turnover and volume are in alignment, with no significant divergence observed. The bearish candle at 17:15 ET received the highest notional value of the session. A further drop in volume may suggest waning bearish conviction, while a sudden increase could signal renewed selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing high at 0.004547 and the swing low at 0.004323, key levels include 0.004429 (38.2%), 0.004370 (61.8%), and 0.004323 (100%). Price has already tested and failed at the 38.2% level earlier in the session, indicating a potential path toward the 61.8% retracement. A test of 0.004286 could confirm a full bearish breakdown of the recent range.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves a short bias on a break of the 50-period MA (15-minute) with a stop-loss placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The 61.8% and 100% levels could serve as initial and extended targets, respectively. Given the current structure, this approach may offer a high-probability entry for bearish traders. The RSI remains neutral to bearish, and Bollinger Bands suggest a potential breakout if volume increases. A confirmation of the breakdown through a close below 0.004323 would validate the short bias and align with the Fibonacci and MA-based signals.