Market Overview for Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) - 2025-10-04

• Price consolidated within a tight range between $0.004383 and $0.004547, showing limited directional bias.
• Momentum indicators signal overbought conditions earlier in the session, followed by a pullback.
• Volume surged during the key 17:15–18:00 ET sell-off, but turnover did not confirm the strength.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the high of $0.004546, followed by a retest of $0.004495.
• Low volatility observed as price traded inside a narrowing Bollinger Band toward the 24-hour close.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at $0.004456 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.004547 by 16:45 ET before declining to a low of $0.004383 by 01:15 ET the next day. The pair closed at $0.004405 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total 24-hour volume reached 58,807,792 USDT, with a notional turnover of $256,065. The price action appears to reflect profit-taking after early strength and a bearish reversal into late evening and early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart reveals a key resistance level at $0.004495–$0.004502, where price met repeated rejection during the late evening session. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of $0.004546, suggesting a short-term top. The price then tested a prior support level at $0.004485, which held temporarily before breaking down to $0.004460 and $0.004435 in the early morning. A notable doji formed near $0.004471 at 23:15 ET, hinting at indecision and a potential turning point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bearish crossover after the 17:15 ET sell-off, confirming the downward shift in sentiment. The daily chart (not shown) would likely show the price below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, reinforcing the idea of a bearish bias in the longer term. The price remains below key moving averages, signaling that downward momentum is still intact.

MACD & RSI

The RSI climbed above 60 early in the session, indicating overbought conditions, and peaked at 63 before a sharp decline to below 40 by the close. This divergence suggests weakening bullish conviction. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the 17:15–18:00 ET sell-off and remained negative for the rest of the session, confirming the bearish momentum. A bearish divergence in the RSI hints at potential for further downward movement in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low for most of the session, with the price consistently trading within a narrowing Bollinger Band. The contraction reached its tightest point at 03:15–04:00 ET before a slight expansion occurred during the late morning sell-off. The price closed near the middle band at the end of the 24-hour window, suggesting a possible consolidation period ahead, but the bearish bias is still evident.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:15–18:00 ET sell-off, reaching 34.5 million USDT, but notional turnover did not increase proportionally, indicating a possible lack of conviction in the move. The largest volume occurred during the break below $0.004485, yet the price continued to fall despite the relatively low amount of selling pressure, suggesting weak support at that level. A divergence between volume and price suggests bearish exhaustion is not yet confirmed.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing from $0.004383 to $0.004547 aligns with a 61.8% retracement level at $0.004485, which was tested multiple times but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the major move from $0.004510 to $0.004380 aligns with a 38.2% retracement at $0.004445, which held temporarily but was broken during the late-night sell-off. This suggests that further downward movement toward the 61.8% level at $0.004415 could be expected in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could focus on the bearish engulfing pattern and the bearish divergence in the RSI, with an entry point on a close below $0.004405 and a stop-loss above $0.004435. A target of $0.004370 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a potential retest of the morning low. Given the weak volume and RSI divergence, this setup may offer a favorable risk-reward ratio over the next 24 hours, assuming the bearish bias continues.