Market Overview for Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) on 2025-10-01

• Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) rose from 0.004083 to 0.004329 in 24 hours, driven by a sharp late-day rally.
• Price action formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 0.004285–0.004309 as buying pressure surged.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Band widening, indicating heightened uncertainty and potential range breakouts.
• RSI moved into overbought territory near 70, suggesting momentum may pause or retrace.
• Turnover spiked with the rally, indicating strong conviction in the bullish move.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at 0.004083 on 2025-09-30 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.004337, a low of 0.004073, and closed at 0.004329 on 2025-10-01 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 189.4 million, with a turnover of approximately $82.4 million, indicating strong engagement with the recent upward trend.

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish-to-bullish shift as price reversed from a consolidation phase and surged past key resistance at 0.004285. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the bottom of the range near 0.004285–0.004309, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. Notable support levels are at 0.004285 and 0.004261, while resistance is forming at 0.004337 and possibly 0.004361.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in favor of the bulls, with the 20-period line above the 50-period, confirming the uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period lines are converging at ~0.004280, which could offer a pivot point for the next phase of the move. MACD showed a strong positive crossover earlier in the day, and the histogram expanded during the rally, affirming the momentum. RSI reached overbought territory near 70, suggesting a potential pause or pullback could follow.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, indicating heightened volatility and investor uncertainty. Price closed near the upper band at 0.004329, which may either signal exhaustion or further upside potential depending on volume and order flow. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements from the key low at 0.004073 to the high at 0.004337 sit at 0.004185 and 0.004271, respectively. These levels may provide support or resistance as the trend develops.

Volume and turnover spiked in tandem with the price breakout, particularly between 05:00–08:00 and again after 08:45–09:30, confirming the strength of the bullish move. A minor divergence emerged after 10:00–11:00, where price continued to rise but volume declined slightly, which could hint at early signs of profit-taking. However, the overall alignment of volume and price action suggests the trend is still in early innings.

Backtest Hypothesis
The strategy under consideration involves identifying a bullish engulfing pattern near a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, confirmed by a MACD crossover and expanding Bollinger Bands. A long entry is triggered at the open of the candle following the pattern, with a stop loss below the engulfing pattern’s low and a target at the next Fibonacci level or resistance. Given today’s data, the setup would have been valid at ~0.004285 with a target near 0.004337 and stop loss near 0.004261. A 24-hour performance review would show a positive return of ~1.3% if held to close, validating the potential of the pattern under current volatility and order flow dynamics. This suggests the strategy could be backtested over the last 30 days to evaluate its robustness across different market conditions.