Market Overview: Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) - 2025-09-23

• Price opened at $0.004434 and closed near $0.004477, forming a modest bullish bias.
• Volatility expanded during the overnight hours, with a high of $0.004518 and a low of $0.004355.
• A key resistance cluster developed around $0.004480–$0.004490, with mixed volume confirmation.
• RSI reached overbought territory briefly but showed divergence with price.
• Bollinger Bands expanded overnight, indicating heightened uncertainty and potential for a breakout.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at $0.004434 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.004477 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. The pair reached a high of $0.004518 and a low of $0.004355. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 196,734,000, with notional turnover at $875,565.

The 15-minute chart shows a volatile overnight rally driven by large-volume spikes at $0.004481–$0.004512. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 00:30–01:00 ET, followed by a bearish rejection at $0.004480–$0.004490. The 20-period EMA (0.004469) and 50-period EMA (0.004475) both crossed above the price in the early morning, indicating a short-term bullish bias. However, the 50-period EMA started to flatten by midday, suggesting potential for consolidation.

The MACD (12,26,9) turned positive after 00:30 ET, confirming momentum in the rally, but it started to flatten by 06:00 ET. The RSI crossed above 70 during the early morning surge, indicating overbought conditions, followed by a divergence as price continued higher while momentum slowed. Bollinger Bands expanded overnight with a widening of 0.00006, and the price closed near the upper band at 12:00 ET, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation phase ahead.

Support levels are evident at $0.004440 (50-period EMA) and $0.004425 (Fibonacci 61.8% of the overnight rally). Resistance remains key at $0.004480–$0.004490, with the 20-period EMA and Fibonacci 38.2% aligning at $0.004478. The price is likely to test the upper resistance in the near term, with a potential for a pullback to support levels if buying momentum fails to confirm.

The backtesting strategy under analysis is a 15-minute RSI-based mean reversion approach. It triggers long entries when RSI falls below 30 and short entries when it rises above 70, with tight stop-loss and take-profit levels. Over the 2025-09-22 to 2025-09-23 timeframe, this strategy would have generated 4 potential long entries and 3 short entries. However, due to the persistent bullish bias and lack of overbought/oversold confirmation, the strategy would have faced a high number of false signals, especially during the overnight rally. This suggests the strategy may require additional volatility or volume filters to perform well on this pair.