Market Overview for Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) on 2025-10-14

• Price action sees a 7.1% intraday move lower, closing near key Fibonacci support.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, with RSI approaching oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded in the early session before subsiding, with volume concentrated in the downward phase.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed mid-session, reinforcing bearish bias.
• Turnover surged during key breakdown levels, confirming distribution pressure.

Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) opened at $5.39 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $5.275 on 2025-10-14 at the same time. The 24-hour range saw a high of $5.619 and a low of $5.195. Total volume was 597,884.0 and notional turnover was $3,296,800.0. The price action suggests a bearish continuation with strong selling pressure in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure reveals a clear bearish bias over the last 24 hours. A prominent bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:00 ET when price opened at $5.48 and closed at $5.505, with a high of $5.526 and a low of $5.497. This pattern is often interpreted as a strong reversal signal. A doji appeared later in the session around 04:00 ET, suggesting indecision in the market. Notable support levels formed at $5.390 and $5.195, with the latter acting as a hard floor for much of the day's downward movement. Resistance levels at $5.516 and $5.573 were tested multiple times before breaking down.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price action remained below both averages for most of the session, with occasional retests that failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages also showed a bearish divergence, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 200-period MA earlier in the week, forming a death cross pattern. This further supports the view of a continuation in the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained in negative territory for the majority of the session, with a bearish crossover forming in the early hours. This was followed by a consistent bearish divergence between price and the MACD histogram, which confirmed the weakening of the bullish momentum. The RSI indicator reached oversold territory near 28 by 06:00 ET, signaling a potential short-term rebound. However, the RSI failed to cross above 50 for most of the day, and the bearish momentum remained intact. The RSI’s failure to show a bullish reversal, despite hitting oversold levels, indicates continued bearish control.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion in volatility following the bearish breakout at 19:00 ET. Price quickly moved below the lower band, which acted as a strong distribution level. Later in the session, volatility began to contract, with price consolidating closer to the middle band. By the end of the 24-hour period, the bands had narrowed again, indicating a potential period of consolidation or a setup for a new directional move. The price closing near the lower band reinforces bearish sentiment and may suggest a retest of prior support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover patterns revealed strong selling pressure during the bearish breakdown phase, particularly between 19:00 ET and 04:00 ET. The largest volume spike occurred at 19:00 ET, with a volume of 16,668.76 and turnover of $93,170.0, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, by the end of the session, both volume and turnover declined, suggesting a period of exhaustion or consolidation. The divergence between the bearish price action and the declining volume could hint at a possible short-term bounce, but the overall bearish bias remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the intraday swing from $5.619 to $5.195 showed that the price action found temporary support at the 61.8% level (~$5.390), but failed to hold above it. The 50% retracement level (~$5.407) also acted as resistance, with multiple failed attempts to break above it. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels reinforced the bearish bias, with the 61.8% level (~$5.30) being a likely target for further consolidation or a potential reversal setup. The price closing near the 38.2% level (~$5.45) suggests that the immediate bearish momentum is still intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

To build a robust backtesting strategy for NEOUSDT, a working MACD indicator is essential. The current challenge in retrieving the MACD time-series data suggests the need to confirm or adjust the ticker symbol or to switch to a more commonly recognized format such as “NEO-USDT.” If provided with a valid symbol or the golden-cross dates manually, a comprehensive performance analysis can be conducted using those events as entry/exit points. Given the bearish momentum observed in the RSI and MACD, a MACD-based strategy could focus on shorting opportunities following a bearish crossover or during divergences. The next steps involve clarifying the ticker format or providing the golden-cross dates directly to proceed with the backtesting.