Market Overview: MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Price declined from 1.01e-06 to 9.5e-06, forming bearish momentum.
• Volume surged late in the session but failed to support a rebound.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions, suggesting possible short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands tightened during consolidation, indicating low volatility.
• Key support levels at 9.5e-06 and 9.4e-06 were tested but not yet broken.

Price and Volume Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) opened at 1.01e-06, reaching a high of 1.01e-06 and a low of 9.5e-06, with a close of 9.5e-06. Total traded volume was 123,220.7 units, and notional turnover amounted to 120.16 units. The pair displayed a prolonged bearish trend with sporadic attempts at bullish reversals, particularly in the early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The price formation over the last 24 hours revealed a strong bearish bias, with several long-bodied bearish candles and a cluster of doji patterns during the overnight hours. A key resistance level emerged around 1.01e-06, which the price failed to reclaim after the initial hour. Support levels at 9.5e-06 and 9.4e-06 showed some defensive behavior, but the price failed to stabilize above 9.6e-06 for most of the session.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish bias. The daily chart confirmed this trend, with the price remaining below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs. The RSI fell into the oversold territory, signaling potential short-term buying pressure. MACD remained in negative territory with a narrowing histogram, suggesting waning bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly during the late-night to early-morning hours, suggesting a period of low volatility. As the market opened, the price tested the lower band multiple times, staying within the channel. The recent volatility expansion, particularly around 04:00 ET, indicated increased uncertainty. The price remains near the lower band, suggesting a possible bounce or a continuation of the downward trend.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night and early-morning hours but did not accompany a strong price reversal. The high volume at 03:30 and 04:15 ET occurred during bearish price action, suggesting continued selling pressure. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking during periods of bearish movement. No clear divergence between volume and price was observed, but the lack of buying interest during key support tests remains a concern.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, recent price swings from 1.01e-06 to 9.5e-06 aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Daily chart retracements showed the price approaching the 38.2% level from earlier bearish waves, though the current trend suggests a likely breakdown. The next key Fibonacci level to watch is 9.3e-06 for potential support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy would involve entering short positions on bearish breakouts below key Fibonacci support levels, with a stop-loss placed just above the nearest resistance. Given the low volatility and bearish momentum confirmed by the MACD and RSI, a short-term mean-reversion approach may also be viable, targeting bounces off the Bollinger lower band and oversold RSI levels. However, given the recent bearish dominance and lack of strong buyers, the bias remains clearly to the downside for the next 24 hours.