Market Overview: MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) – 2025-09-13

• MyShell/Bitcoin traded in a narrow range with a late rally toward 1.25e-6, capped by resistance.
• Volume spiked in the early hours of 09/13, but failed to sustain upward momentum.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-day, followed by a breakout attempt that stalled.
• RSI remained neutral, suggesting no strong overbought or oversold signals.
• Fibonacci levels at 1.24e-6 and 1.25e-6 appear to act as key support/resistance.

MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) opened at 1.23e-06 at 12:00 ET − 1, reached a high of 1.28e-06, touched a low of 1.22e-06, and closed at 1.22e-06 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 70,678.6 units, with turnover totaling approximately 85.45 units (notional value).

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern showed limited price movement for much of the session, with a few key exceptions. A notable breakout attempt occurred around 01:15 ET, where the price surged to 1.28e-06. However, this was quickly met with resistance and reversed to close at 1.22e-06 by 05:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the 02:15 ET candle, confirming a potential reversal from bullish to bearish sentiment. Additionally, a doji formed around 03:45 ET, indicating indecision and a potential pause in the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart hovered near the price range, showing no strong directional bias. The 20-period MA briefly crossed above the 50-period MA during the 01:15 ET rally, signaling a potential bullish crossover, but this was short-lived as the price collapsed back below the 50-period MA by the following hour. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs showed a flat to slightly bearish alignment, indicating a lack of strong support for a long-term bullish move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained mostly flat, with a brief positive spike during the 01:15 ET rally that failed to hold. RSI remained in the mid-range between 50 and 60 for most of the session, indicating a lack of strong overbought or oversold conditions. However, a bearish divergence became visible in the final candle, as the price made a higher low while RSI made a lower low.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction from 03:00 to 05:00 ET, indicating a potential breakout. The price briefly tested the upper band during the 01:15 ET spike but failed to maintain the move, closing back within the band range. The lower band acted as a support level during the late 09/13 sell-off, preventing a deeper decline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early hours of 09/13, particularly at 01:15 ET, with a volume of 3,939.8 units, confirming the bullish breakout attempt. However, volume sharply declined afterward, failing to sustain the upward move. Total turnover mirrored this pattern, with a peak of 85.45 units during the 01:15 ET rally and a rapid drop thereafter. This suggests a lack of follow-through buying interest and weak conviction in the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 01:15 ET rally showed key resistance at 1.25e-6 and 1.24e-6. The price tested the 1.25e-6 level twice, with the first attempt failing and the second attempt closing slightly below it. A retest of the 1.24e-6 support level could provide insight into whether the bearish trend is likely to continue or if a consolidation phase is forming.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on breakout entries at the upper Bollinger Band following a period of contraction, confirmed by a 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA. Stops could be placed below the most recent swing low, with a target at the nearest Fibonacci resistance level. Given the weak follow-through in volume and the bearish divergence in RSI, the strategy could incorporate a trailing stop or an early exit on the first sign of rejection at key resistance. This aligns with the current structure, where breakouts are attempted but quickly reversed, suggesting the need for tighter risk management parameters to avoid false signals.