Market Overview for MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT): Volatile Bearish Move on Expanding Volatility

• MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) saw a 24-hour decline of 13.8% from $0.381 to $0.3608 amid increasing bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish divergence as price fell below key 20-period MA.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the final 12 hours, with volume surging to over 134k on the 15-minute chart.
• Price tested the 0.3643–0.3658 consolidation range, failing to break higher.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted potential support at 0.3607 and 0.3581, though volume diverged in the final hour.

Opening Summary

MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) opened at $0.381 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of $0.3858 before closing at $0.3608 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The 24-hour period saw a total traded volume of 1,633,180.56 ALICE and a notional turnover of $578,399.95 (calculated from volume and average price). The pair has entered a bearish phase with strong downward momentum and increasing volatility.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the last 24 hours showed a strong bearish bias with the formation of several key support and resistance levels. The 0.3761–0.3786 range acted as a temporary floor in the early hours, but was decisively broken by the end of the session. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 04:15 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. Later, the price formed a long lower shadow at 07:30 ET, suggesting rejection near 0.3669 but failing to hold. The final hour showed a sharp breakdown below 0.3638 with a long wick indicating bearish exhaustion.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.3735) and 50-period MA (0.3752) were decisively breached as the price moved below both indicators. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA (0.3771), 100-period MA (0.3805), and 200-period MA (0.3815) all above current levels, reinforcing a bearish bias and confirming the broader downtrend. Price may find support at the 50- and 200-period MA levels in the coming days if volatility subsides.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early morning, with the line (−0.0021) below the signal line (−0.0015) and the histogram in negative territory. This confirmed the continuation of the bearish trend. RSI dropped from 48 at the open to 28 by the close, signaling oversold conditions. However, volume diverged from price in the final hour, with RSI failing to bottom as volume surged, suggesting potential short-term bounce but no immediate reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the afternoon and evening hours. Bollinger Bands widened from a range of ~0.0019 to ~0.0044 as the price moved from consolidation into a clear downtrend. Price closed near the lower band at 0.3608, suggesting strong bearish pressure. A bounce could be expected in the short term, but the upper band remains far from current levels at ~0.3710. This widening of the bands aligns with a breakout pattern in the short-term chart.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 134,000 ALICE in the final hour (15:00–15:15 ET), with notional turnover exceeding $48,000. This surge coincided with the breakdown below the 0.3638 support level. Earlier in the day, volume was relatively light in the 16:00–18:00 ET window but increased sharply as the price moved lower. Notional turnover diverged from price in the last 2 hours, with turnover surging while price dropped sharply, indicating potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.3858 to 0.3608, key retracement levels include 0.3741 (23.6%), 0.3713 (38.2%), 0.3684 (50%), and 0.3655 (61.8%). Price briefly touched the 61.8% retracement at 0.3655 before failing to hold. On the daily chart, the 0.3581 level (61.8% from the prior high) is a critical support level. If this holds, a 38.2% retracement at 0.3643 may become the next key target for a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on the combination of RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Band breakouts on the 15-minute timeframe. Specifically, a sell signal could be triggered when the MACD crosses below the signal line (bearish crossover), RSI drops below 30 (oversold), and price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band with a volume spike. A stop-loss could be placed at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach aligns with the price action seen in the final hours of the 24-hour window and could be backtested for efficacy in similar market conditions.