Market Overview: MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) – October 12, 2025 (12:00 ET–12:00 ET)

• MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) fell to a 24-hour low of $0.2754 before stabilizing and closing near $0.2832.
• A bearish breakdown below key support at $0.278–0.280 was followed by a consolidation phase after 02:00 ET.
• Low RSI and high volume at the recent low suggest potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility remains constrained, with Bollinger Bands showing a gradual widening in the afternoon.
• A bullish engulfing pattern and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement may signal a short-term rebound.

Price Action and Market Context

ALICEUSDT opened at $0.2935 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and dropped to a 24-hour low of $0.2754 before closing at $0.2832 at 12:00 ET on October 12. The pair traded between $0.2852 (high) and $0.2754 (low), with a total volume of 11,419,551.41 and a notional turnover of $3,152,054.06 over the 24-hour period. The price has displayed a bearish bias, particularly in the early part of the session, but signs of short-covering emerged in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Price initially tested key support levels between $0.278 and $0.280, breaking below in the early hours of October 12. This breakdown was followed by a period of consolidation, with price bouncing off the lower Bollinger Band and forming a bullish engulfing pattern around 05:00–07:00 ET. A doji at $0.2801 on October 12 also suggests indecision at this level. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the October 11 high ($0.2948) to the October 12 low ($0.2754) aligns with $0.2832, supporting the idea of a potential short-term rebound.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The RSI has dropped to oversold territory (below 30), particularly in the 02:00–04:00 ET timeframe, which may indicate a potential short-term reversal. The MACD has been flat to slightly negative, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line, signaling bearish momentum, but the histogram has begun to contract, suggesting momentum could be waning. Bollinger Bands have widened gradually in the afternoon, pointing to increasing volatility and possibly a breakout scenario. A 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart is below the 50-period MA, but the 50-period MA has started to stabilize and could serve as a potential floor.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume spiked in the early morning hours (02:00–04:00 ET) as price hit the session low, confirming the bearish move. However, after 05:00 ET, volume has remained relatively balanced, with no sharp surges to indicate a new leg down or a bullish reversal. Notional turnover has followed a similar pattern, with the heaviest turnover during the breakdown and early recovery. A divergence between price and volume in the afternoon may suggest that the bearish momentum is slowing.

Fibonacci Retracements and Moving Averages

Fibonacci levels from the major 15-minute swing (0.2948–0.2754) highlight key support levels at 0.2832 (61.8%), which is currently the close. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart is stabilizing near this level, potentially reinforcing the idea of a short-term base forming. For daily context, the 200-period moving average is at $0.2795, and the 50-period MA is at $0.2812—both of which could act as near-term supports if the current trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price action aligns well with a breakout-based backtesting strategy that targets key Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band retests after a consolidation period. If a bullish breakout from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.2832 is confirmed with above-average volume, a short-term target could be the 50-period MA at $0.2812 and potentially the 38.2% retracement at $0.2861. A failure to hold above the 61.8% level would likely see price retest the 50-period MA and the Bollinger Band floor. Traders may monitor these levels for potential reversals or continuation patterns in the next 24 hours.