Market Overview for MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT)

• MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) declined sharply during the 24-hour period, with a significant drawdown after early resistance breaks.
• Price action showed clear bearish momentum, particularly after the 0.4317 pivot broke, leading to a 0.3734 low.
• Volatility expanded drastically, with volume surging to ~3 million on the selloff and confirming weak buying interest.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory, while the MACD turned deeply negative, signaling a potential short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands widened on the downside, with price closing near the lower band, indicating low volatility ahead if a bottom forms.

MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) opened at 0.4339 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.1854 before closing at 0.3077 as of 2025-10-11 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour trading volume reached 19.15 million, with notional turnover reaching $6.96 million. The pair showed a prolonged bearish trend, with price breaking key levels and failing to recover during late ET hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bearish bias throughout the 24-hour window, with the first significant break occurring at 0.4317, a prior intraday high. After this pivot failed, a series of lower highs and lower lows emerged, culminating in a sharp breakdown to 0.1854. A large bearish engulfing candle formed on the 2025-10-10 21:30–21:45 ET 15-minute chart, signaling a potential trend reversal into bearish territory. A doji appeared near 0.3077, hinting at indecision but not sufficient to reverse the downward drift.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearish, with price below both. The daily chart showed the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages in a descending alignment, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price is well below the 200-day MA, indicating a longer-term bearish setup.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned deeply negative on the 15-minute chart, with the histogram showing bearish divergence as price made lower lows and MACD bottoms failed to confirm. The RSI bottomed near 20, suggesting an oversold condition, although this may not be enough to trigger a strong bounce without a reversal candle. The combination of a weak MACD and oversold RSI suggests potential for a minor correction ahead, though bearish momentum remains strong.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 24-hour selloff, particularly as price dropped to 0.1854, where it closed near the lower band. This suggests a period of high volatility and exhaustion of the bearish wave. However, the narrow bands in the early ET hours indicated a period of consolidation before the breakdown. Price has since closed below the lower band, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the selloff, particularly in the 15-minute candles on 2025-10-10 21:30–21:45 and 22:00–22:15 ET, where volumes exceeded 3 million, confirming the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the largest amounts recorded during the sharp decline. However, as price approached the 0.3077 close, volume dropped, indicating weakening selling pressure and potential for a near-term consolidation or minor rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 0.4346–0.1854 swing, the 38.2% level is around 0.3207 and the 61.8% level near 0.3065—both of which align closely with the final 24-hour close. This suggests price is approaching a potential retracement zone, which could offer short-term buyers an entry point. If price holds above 0.3065, a deeper bearish move may be avoided; if it breaks below, the next key level to watch is 0.2901.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical setup, a potential backtest could involve entering a short position on a break of the 0.3065 support, with a stop above the 0.3131–0.3164 cluster. Targets could be set at 0.2901 and 0.2752 based on Fibonacci retracement levels and prior support. A long entry might be considered if price bounces above 0.3065 with strong volume, targeting the 0.3131 and 0.3164 levels. The strategy would rely on RSI and MACD for confirmation of momentum shifts, and Bollinger Band reversion to identify overextended positions.