Market Overview for MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) – 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price opened at $0.2718 and closed at $0.2729, with a 24-hour high of $0.3454 and low of $0.2622.
• Total volume was 34,067,082.23 and turnover was $9,313,896.31 over the 24-hour period.
• Notable volatility spikes occurred in the 15:30–16:45 ET window, with a sharp price rebound following a drop.

Price Action and Structure

MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) opened at $0.2718 on 2025-11-08 and closed at $0.2729 within a 24-hour window that saw significant volatility. The price action showed a sharp decline to $0.2622 during the midday session, followed by a rapid recovery, peaking at $0.3454 just before 16:30 ET. Key support levels appear to be forming around $0.266–$0.268, with resistance likely at $0.272–$0.274 and a potential upper barrier near $0.290. Notable candlestick patterns included a morning star and a bullish engulfing pattern, both suggesting potential short-term reversals. The formation of these structures indicates cautious optimism, particularly after the afternoon rebound.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed during the early hours, indicating a potential shift in momentum. The 50-SMA rose above the 20-SMA in the 16:30–17:00 ET window, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMAs remain in a flat configuration, with no clear trend bias from the longer-term perspective. This suggests that while short-term traders are becoming bullish, the broader trend remains neutral. RSI hit oversold levels (around 25) during the price dip and rebounded to mid-50s, signaling a potential continuation of the current recovery phase.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked significantly during the 15:30–16:45 ET period, with the price moving outside the upper Bollinger Band before retreating back to the mid-band. This expansion suggests increased uncertainty and potential market repositioning. Earlier in the session, volatility had contracted, with price staying within the band, indicating a period of consolidation. The price currently appears to be consolidating near the mid-Bollinger Band, suggesting a possible continuation of the current range or a breakout attempt.

Fibonacci and Volume Dynamics

Fibonacci retracement levels for the recent intra-day swing (from $0.2622 to $0.3454) indicate key levels at 38.2% ($0.297), 61.8% ($0.273), and 78.6% ($0.256). The 61.8% level coincides with current price action, suggesting a possible stall or reversal point. Volume patterns show a divergence during the early recovery phase—volume spiked during the rebound to $0.3454 but failed to follow through after the 16:30 ET high, which may hint at a lack of conviction in the bullish move. The late-session surge in volume (especially during the 15:30–16:45 window) appears to confirm the price bounce but may also signal a topping pattern if not followed by a breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the challenges in retrieving the MACD indicator, we propose an alternative strategy based on the observed price behavior and Fibonacci levels. A potential backtesting hypothesis would involve entering long positions when the price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($0.273) with a stop-loss below the 38.2% level ($0.297) and a take-profit at the 78.6% level ($0.256). A short entry could be triggered when the price falls below $0.268 with a stop above $0.274. This would align with the recent swing structure and the observed support/resistance levels. If MACD data were available, we could enhance the hypothesis by incorporating crossovers and divergences as confirmation signals.