Market Overview for MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) - 2025-10-07

• ALICEUSDT declined from a 24-hour high of $0.3709 to a low of $0.3366, closing near $0.3376 with bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly in early ET, with price dropping below key support levels and volume spiking.
• RSI is in oversold territory, but volume suggests distribution rather than accumulation at lower levels.
• A potential short-term bounce may test the $0.3441–$0.3480 range, but the overall bias remains negative.

The MyNeighborAlice/Tether pair (ALICEUSDT) opened at $0.3605 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.3709 before falling to a low of $0.3366 by 1345 ET on October 7. It closed at $0.3376 as of 12:00 ET on October 7. Total 24-hour volume stood at approximately 6,952,073.23 with total turnover at $2,473,283.05.

Structure & Formations

ALICEUSDT experienced a sharp decline in the early hours of October 7, forming a bearish engulfing pattern at the $0.3680 level, followed by a long bearish shadow at the $0.3650 level. A key support zone between $0.3480 and $0.3540 has been tested multiple times but failed to hold, suggesting a potential breakdown towards $0.3400. The pair is currently forming a potential bearish wedge pattern between $0.3360 and $0.3450.

Support & Resistance (15-min chart)

- Key resistance: $0.3480 (failed), $0.3540
- Key support: $0.3400, $0.3360

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both trend downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price has remained below both indicators throughout the 24-hour window, with the 50-period SMA acting as a dynamic resistance. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA configuration is bearish, with the 50-period SMA crossing below the 100- and 200-period lines, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remains in negative territory, with a bearish crossover observed in the early morning hours. The RSI is currently in oversold territory at around 28, but the divergence between price and RSI suggests a weak bounce may occur before the trend resumes. If the RSI fails to cross above 40, the pair is likely to extend its decline toward $0.3300.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly in the early part of the 24-hour period, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a contraction observed in the previous night. Price has spent the majority of the session below the 20-period lower band, indicating a high volatility regime and bearish pressure. A retest of the upper band at $0.3400–$0.3450 is likely to face resistance unless volume increases to confirm a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early hours of October 7, coinciding with a sharp price drop. Notional turnover reached a peak during the 03:30–04:00 ET period, with the pair trading at $0.3670–$0.3697. However, a divergence appears between price and volume in the 09:00–10:00 ET session, as volume declines while price continues to fall. This suggests a potential exhaustion in the short-term bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent swing high at $0.3709 and low at $0.3366 show the 38.2% retracement at $0.3527 and 61.8% at $0.3480. The pair briefly tested the 61.8% level but failed to hold, suggesting a likely extension of the move toward the 78.6% retracement at $0.3404. If the price closes above $0.3480 with increasing volume, a retest of the 38.2% level may occur.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering a short position when the price breaks below a 15-minute 50-period SMA and the RSI drops below 40, with a stop-loss placed above the 20-period SMA. This approach aligns with the bearish momentum observed in the ALICEUSDT pair over the past 24 hours. The current conditions suggest this strategy could perform well in the near term, particularly if the pair continues to trade below key moving averages and volume remains strong on the downside.