Market Overview for MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) – 2025-09-23

• ALICEUSDT consolidates near 0.322 after a volatile 24-hour range between 0.316–0.325.
• RSI signals moderate momentum with no overbought/oversold extremes.
• Volume peaks at 0.321–0.323 and declines during consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands reflect moderate volatility with price near the midline.
• A bearish 15-minute engulfing pattern appeared near the 0.325 high.

Opening Summary and Market Context

MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) opened at 0.3203 (12:00 ET–1) and traded between 0.316–0.325 before closing at 0.3229 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume reached approximately 1,091,989.88 ALICE with a notional turnover of $352,493.64. Price appears to have entered a consolidation phase following a sharp midday recovery.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish engulfing candle at 0.325, signaling potential short-term weakness. A multi-hour bullish reversal is visible around 0.3195–0.3225, where price rejected a prior breakdown. Key support is identified at 0.320 (psychological level) and 0.3175, while resistance is forming at 0.324–0.325. A doji near 0.322 suggests indecision at the 24-hour high.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Short-term momentum appears neutral, with the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart converging near 0.322. The daily 50/100/200 EMA shows a bullish bias, with price trading above all three. MACD remains in positive territory but flattening, indicating weakening upward thrust. RSI is neutral around 50, with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded during the midday rally, pushing price near the upper Bollinger Band at 0.325. The subsequent consolidation has seen price drift toward the midline of the bands, indicating reduced directional pressure. A contraction in band width is expected if price continues to range between 0.320–0.325.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday rally, peaking at 0.321–0.323, with strong participation from buyers. However, recent volume has declined during the consolidation phase, suggesting lack of follow-through. No significant price-volume divergence is observed, and turnover remains aligned with price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.316–0.325 swing, price appears to be consolidating around the 61.8% retrace (0.322). A break above 0.325 could target the 0.3274 (127.2% extension), while a retest of 0.3175 would align with the 38.2% level. Daily retracements indicate 0.3215 is a critical short-term pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on identifying 15-minute engulfing patterns near key Fibonacci and moving average levels. The hypothesis is that a bearish engulfing candle near 0.325—when accompanied by a RSI above 60 and price near the upper Bollinger Band—could trigger a short-term bearish bias. This aligns with the observed pattern today and could be tested by monitoring a pullback to 0.320 for a potential bounce or breakdown.