Market Overview for Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT): 2025-09-25

• Price declined from 0.1186 to 0.1113, with bearish continuation patterns forming below key support levels.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, with no signs of reversal or overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the drop, with Bollinger Bands widening past 0.1165.
• Turnover surged to 7.6M USDT in the first half of the session, confirming bearish pressure.
• Volume increased as the price declined, showing no divergence between volume and price.

Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) opened at 0.1184 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1113 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.1186 and low of 0.1111. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 13,450,302.0 units, with a turnover of 7,608,485.9 USDT.

Structure & Formations

The price of MOVEUSDT formed a series of bearish continuation patterns over the past 24 hours, including several dark cloud covers and shooting stars. Key support levels were identified at 0.1150 and 0.1130, with the 0.1111 level now acting as a recent floor. Resistance levels at 0.1170 and 0.1185 appear to be holding as ceilings, with price failing to break above either in the current session. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed on 2025-09-25 00:30 ET, confirming a reversal from a brief short-term rebound attempt.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in bearish alignment, with the price trading well below both. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages are in a strong downtrend, with the price closing below all three, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. This alignment supports the view that the pair remains in a medium-term bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remains in negative territory with bearish divergence forming between price and momentum. The RSI is currently at 29, signaling oversold conditions, but without a reversal pattern or bullish divergence, this may be a false signal. The RSI has moved in a wide range between 30 and 70, with the majority of the session spent below 50, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening between 0.1111 and 0.1186 over the last 24 hours. The price has spent most of the session near the lower band, with a brief reversion to the middle band around 0.1140. The expansion suggests heightened uncertainty and risk of further downside or a sharp rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume has surged in tandem with the price decline, with the highest volume recorded during the sharp drop from 0.1184 to 0.1150 on 2025-09-25 00:30 ET. The total turnover of 7.6M USDT was concentrated during this move, suggesting strong bearish conviction. No significant divergence was observed between price and volume, indicating that the selling pressure is likely to persist.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high at 0.1186 to the low at 0.1111 show key levels at 0.1152 (38.2%), 0.1139 (50%), and 0.1125 (61.8%). The price has tested and bounced from the 61.8% level at 0.1125, suggesting a potential short-term support area. However, given the bearish momentum, a test of the 0.1111 level remains probable in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on identifying and entering trades based on the combination of RSI oversold conditions and bearish candlestick formations, such as the bearish engulfing and shooting star patterns. Given the current RSI at 29 and the presence of multiple bearish candle patterns in the recent 15-minute data, a backtest could simulate entries with a stop-loss placed above the 50-period moving average and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.1125). If the strategy aligns with the observed structure and momentum, it may offer a high-probability trade into further downside, provided that volume and turnover continue to confirm the bearish sentiment.