Market Overview for Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) – November 12, 2025

Summary
• Price action drifted between $1.989 and $2.028, with late-day bullish momentum.
• Volume spiked post-02:00 ET, coinciding with a key 2.004–2.022 range breakout.
• RSI suggests overbought levels in the final 3 hours, hinting at near-term consolidation.

Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) opened at $1.993 (12:00 ET–1) and closed at $2.008 (12:00 ET), hitting a high of $2.028 and a low of $1.989. Total volume over 24 hours was 418,735.05, with turnover at $829,245.02. The pair showed late-day bullish momentum as it broke above the 2.004–2.022 range.

Structure & Formations

Price found strong support at $1.989, with a shallow bearish rejection in the 19:00–20:00 ET timeframe. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 22:30–22:45 ET, confirming a reversal after a midday selloff. A key resistance at $2.007 was tested and broken late in the day, with a potential next target at $2.016–$2.022. A doji at $2.006 (06:15 ET) signaled indecision and may foreshadow a pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA (a golden cross) at 01:30 ET, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA was around $2.002, just below the close. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (not computed here due to lack of daily data) would typically provide a baseline for trend strength. A break above $2.012 could attract new momentum buyers.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bullish post-01:30 ET, with a positive histogram growing until 04:00 ET. RSI peaked at 72 near 07:00 ET and again at 10:00 ET, hinting at overbought conditions and a possible retracement. The 61.8% Fibonacci level of the last swing was $2.007, which price hit and surpassed, suggesting continued strength ahead of the $2.013–$2.016 area.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 02:00–05:00 ET window, with a high of $2.022 near the upper band. Price closed just above the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, suggesting bullish continuation. A contraction in the 06:00–08:00 ET period indicated a potential setup for a breakout. Price may test the upper band again if it retests the $2.016–$2.017 levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over $46k at 02:00 ET during the $2.002–$2.022 breakout, with a strong 50k+ turnover at 08:45 ET. A divergence between price and volume occurred during the 09:30–10:00 ET pullback, where price fell but volume did not confirm the move. Notional turnover remained elevated in the final 4 hours, indicating sustained institutional or large-cap interest in the pair.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of the 24-hour swing (from $1.989 to $2.022) were at $2.009 and $2.016, respectively. Price peaked at $2.022 and closed at $2.008, just below the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential target ahead if buyers regain control. A retest of the 38.2% level at $2.009 could confirm a consolidation phase before a fresh leg up.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a basic breakout strategy based on this 24-hour swing, one could consider entering long at $2.007 (confirmed by bullish engulfing) with a stop at $1.999 (immediate support) and a target at $2.016 (61.8% Fib). This aligns with the MACD and RSI signals, which confirmed strength after 01:30 ET. A backtest using this setup on similar 15-minute swings over the past 30 days would determine the probability and risk-reward ratio, but initial signs suggest a viable short-term bullish trade setup.