Market Overview for Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) on 2025-10-23

• Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) opened at $1.819 and closed at $1.876 after a 24-hour swing from $1.772 to $1.893.
• The pair showed a strong bullish bias in the second half of the session, with volume and price action aligning to confirm the upward move.
• Key support and resistance levels were tested and broken, with a notable bearish divergence turning into a reversal pattern.
• Volatility expanded after 21:15 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening, indicating increased market participation and momentum.
• RSI hovered near overbought territory during the late ET hours, suggesting potential for a pullback but with strong volume confirmation.

Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) traded in a volatile 24-hour range from $1.772 to $1.893, opening at $1.819 and closing at $1.876 as of 12:00 ET. The pair saw a total volume of 1,398,209.86 and a notional turnover of $2,631,131.81, with the majority of action occurring in the evening and overnight sessions. The price formation showed a bearish breakdown attempt followed by a sharp reversal, with multiple candlestick patterns including bullish engulfing and a morning star-like structure emerging from the 21:15 to 05:00 ET window.

Key support levels at $1.820 and $1.819 were tested and broken early in the session, followed by a sharp rally that found resistance at $1.850 and $1.880. By 05:30 ET, the pair had established a new short-term high of $1.874, with the 20-period EMA at $1.858 and the 50-period EMA at $1.865 supporting the bullish bias. The 50/200-day MA crossover was not yet in play, but the 15-minute chart showed a clear trend reversal. The price action appears to be aligning with the 50-period EMA, which could indicate a continuation of the upward bias if the 20-period MA crosses above it in the coming hours.

The 15-minute MACD (12,26,9) showed a bullish crossover at 02:30 ET, with positive divergence in the second half of the session confirming the reversal. RSI peaked near overbought levels ($1.875) but did not exceed 75, suggesting a controlled bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 21:15–07:00 ET window, indicating heightened volatility and a higher probability of continuation. The price spent most of the last 12 hours above the upper band, which is typically a strong indicator of a short-term overbought condition and potential pullback.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the swing low of $1.772 and the swing high of $1.893 showed that the current price of $1.876 aligns closely with the 61.8% retracement level. This suggests the market may consolidate around that area before the next directional move. Volume increased significantly during the reversal phase, with the largest spike at 05:30 ET when the price broke above $1.875. Notional turnover also spiked in the same period, confirming the strength of the move. The correlation between price and volume was positive, indicating strong conviction in the upward move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described relies on identifying MACD bottom divergence signals followed by a sell signal when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. While this pair does not trade on traditional equity markets, the methodology is transferable to crypto pairs with sufficient liquidity and historical data. For MORPHOUSDT, such divergences occurred notably on the 24-hour chart, for example, during the 21:30–00:15 ET window where a bearish divergence turned into a strong reversal. If applied to this pair, the strategy would have generated a buy signal during that period and a sell signal when the MACD crossed below the signal line in the following session. A full backtest over the 2022–2025 period would provide insight into its effectiveness for this specific market. However, due to the high volatility and rapid price movements in crypto, adjustments to the MACD parameters may be necessary for optimal performance.