Market Overview for Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) – 2025-10-10

• MORPHOUSDT dropped 6.1% from a 24-hour high of $1.706 to a low of $1.571, showing strong bearish momentum in the last 24 hours.
• A bearish divergence appeared between price and volume in the late ET afternoon, with price falling despite moderate volume.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 28, suggesting potential near-term reversal, but Bollinger Bands showed price near the lower boundary.
• A key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level sits at ~$1.616, acting as immediate support with potential to hold.
• The 15-minute chart displayed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and long lower wicks, reinforcing a continuation bias.

The Morpho/Tether pair (MORPHOUSDT) opened at $1.673 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $1.706 before plummeting to a low of $1.571. The 24-hour session closed at $1.586 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. Total traded volume amounted to 1.75 million units, with notional turnover reaching $2.97 million, showing increased activity as the pair fell into bearish territory. The price action reflects growing bearish conviction, especially in the late afternoon session.

Structure & Formations

Price action in the second half of the session displayed key bearish formations, including bearish engulfing patterns and long lower wicks on the 15-minute chart. The most notable pattern occurred around 15:30–16:15 ET when the price collapsed from $1.695 to $1.58, breaking below the $1.64 support zone. This move triggered a Fibonacci retracement from the $1.706 high, with the 61.8% level at ~$1.616. A potential bounce from this level could signal a short-covering rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained above the price for most of the session, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA in the early afternoon, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 200-period MA earlier in the week, but this momentum has faded as the 50-period MA is now approaching the 200-period level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line early in the session, with the histogram shrinking in the afternoon as bearish momentum waned slightly. RSI hit 27 by 15:45 ET, indicating oversold conditions, but price continued lower, suggesting a lack of near-term buying interest. RSI is currently at 30, showing the possibility of a rebound if support holds.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, with a brief contraction in volatility occurring around 10:00–10:30 ET. As the bands expanded, price broke out to the downside, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend. The current position of the price near the lower band supports the idea that the pair is oversold, but a bounce from this level may only be temporary.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the late afternoon session, particularly between 15:15–15:45 ET, when the price dropped from $1.662 to $1.614. Notional turnover also increased during this period, reaching ~$113,000 in the 15:45 ET candle. However, price and volume appeared to diverge during this time—price continued to fall while volume flattened—suggesting a potential exhaustion of the bearish trend. This could be a key level to monitor for reversal signs.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1.706 high to 1.571 low are as follows:
- 23.6% at ~$1.644
- 38.2% at ~$1.616
- 50% at ~$1.638
- 61.8% at ~$1.616
The 61.8% level has already shown resistance, and the pair is currently consolidating near that level. A close above this level could trigger a short-term rally toward the 50% retracement zone. However, a break below 61.8% could accelerate the bearish trend further.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price action and technical indicators, a backtesting strategy could focus on short-term bounces off the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~$1.616) with a stop-loss placed below the previous intraday low. A long entry could be placed at this level, with a target at the 38.2% retracement (~$1.644) and a trailing stop to lock in profits. This approach would capitalize on mean reversion within a defined range, assuming volatility remains contained. For a bearish trade, a short could be initiated on a close below $1.616 with a target at $1.58 and a stop above $1.644 to avoid a breakout failure. This strategy would be most effective with volume confirmation and RSI divergence as additional filters.