Market Overview for Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) – 2025-11-07

Summary
• MOVRUSDT opened at $3.515, hit a high of $3.884, and closed at $3.578 with a low of $3.463.
• Price saw strong volatility with a large bullish move followed by a sharp correction.
• Volume surged during the afternoon, with the highest turnover seen between 02:30–03:45 ET.

Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) opened at $3.515 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, reached a 24-hour high of $3.884, and closed at $3.578 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-07. The pair traded between $3.463 and $3.884, with a total volume of 489,539.90 MOVR and a notional turnover of $1,700,576.80 over the period.

Structure & Formations

Price initially found resistance around $3.60–3.62, breaking above into a bullish channel before a sharp correction. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $3.88–3.85, signaling potential bearish momentum. A morning session low near $3.463 may serve as short-term support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price during the afternoon, signaling a bearish shift. On the daily chart, price closed above the 50-period moving average but below the 200-period line, indicating a mixed longer-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early afternoon, confirming the reversal from the high. The RSI peaked above 80, signaling overbought conditions before diving into neutral territory, aligning with the correction. This suggests momentum has shifted to the downside.

Bollinger Bands

Price briefly broke above the upper Bollinger Band during the rally to $3.884, but quickly retracted into the band and tested the lower boundary near $3.56–3.57. The narrowing of the bands in the morning suggested low volatility, followed by a strong expansion during the afternoon breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly between 02:30 and 03:45 ET, with the largest single bar recording 25,530 MOVR traded at $3.80. Notional turnover also peaked in this period. Despite the sharp price drop after the high, volume remained elevated, indicating conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels from the morning low to the afternoon high suggest $3.70 (38.2%), $3.62 (50%), and $3.55 (61.8%) as possible zones for price to test. The current close at $3.578 suggests a potential test of the 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent overbought RSI condition (peaking above 80) and a strong bearish reversal pattern, this market may be a suitable candidate for an RSI-based sell strategy. However, the absence of ultra-high-frequency RSI data for MOVRUSDT has limited our ability to backtest this strategy historically. To proceed, we recommend either using a 1-hour RSI bar for coarser testing or manually feeding in known overbought RSI timestamps. Both approaches are viable depending on the data availability and desired level of granularity.