Market Overview for Mira/Tether (MIRAUSDT)

Summary
• Price traded between 0.216 and 0.2246 over 24 hours, closing near mid-range.
• Key bearish harami and bullish engulfing patterns observed during early session.
• Volatility expanded into overnight hours, with volume surging during key breaks.

Structure & Formations

MIRAUSDT displayed a bearish harami pattern during the 20:45–21:00 ET timeframe, signaling potential near-term weakness. Later, a bullish engulfing pattern at 22:45–23:00 ET hinted at short-term buying interest. Support levels emerged around 0.216–0.217, with resistance consolidating at 0.2225–0.2235. A doji at 09:45 ET suggested indecision following the morning rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained above the 20SMA (0.2182) but fell below the 50SMA (0.2197), indicating mixed momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA (0.2179) and 100DMA (0.2184) closely aligned, suggesting consolidation is likely. The 200DMA (0.2165) offered strong support early in the session.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the early hours, with a negative crossover and shrinking histogram. RSI dropped from overbought (64) to neutral (48) by 09:00 ET, confirming the pullback. However, RSI rebounded into overbought territory after 22:00 ET, suggesting short-term strength despite the broader trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after 20:00 ET, pushing price toward the upper band at 0.2246. A contraction earlier in the day (around 19:00 ET) preceded the breakout, adding to its validity. Price spent much of the session near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions during the morning dip.

Volume & Turnover

Total volume reached 9.7M, with the most significant spikes occurring at 22:45 ET and 03:30 ET—coinciding with strong candle formations. Turnover surged above $2.1M during the early-morning dip, suggesting increased selling pressure. Price and turnover diverged slightly after 07:00 ET, hinting at potential bearish follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level at 0.2207 served as a strong resistance, with price rebounding from it twice. The major daily swing from 0.216 to 0.2246 showed 38.2% retests at 0.2206 and 61.8% at 0.2194, both of which provided short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy leveraged bearish harami patterns as short entry signals and capped holding periods at 3 days to manage risk. With MIRAUSDT exhibiting a strong bearish harami early in the session, this would have triggered a short entry, which would have been closed after three trading days—potentially capturing the subsequent pullback. The strategy relies on MACD and RSI as secondary confirmation and assumes that volume and price alignment provide reliable signals. This approach aligns well with the observed price structure and could be backtested further to optimize parameters for this pair.

Forward Outlook and Risk

The path of least resistance appears to be downward, with 0.216 and 0.2153 (200DMA) offering critical support to watch. A break below 0.215 would likely accelerate the decline toward 0.212–0.213. Conversely, a retest of 0.2225 could trigger a short-term rally, though it would need to clear 0.2235 for momentum to shift meaningfully. Investors should remain cautious around 0.216 due to prior support turning into a potential reversal trigger.