Market Overview: Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) – Volatile 24-Hour Session with Rebound and Divergence

• METISUSDT opened at $9.59 and traded between $9.30 and $10.26, closing at $9.51 amid volatile 15-minute swings.
• A strong rebound from a 15-minute low of $9.30 suggests potential short-term buying interest after oversold RSI levels.
• Volume surged during the 15:00–17:00 ET rebound, but diverged from price near the close, indicating possible uncertainty.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, with price touching both upper and lower bands, signaling increased volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near $9.47 at 10:30 ET, suggesting short-term reversal potential.

Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) opened at $9.59 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $9.51 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, having reached an intraday high of $10.26 and a low of $9.30. Total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 172,047.83 METIS, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,633,834. The pair displayed pronounced intraday volatility, especially during the overnight session, which saw a sharp rebound from key support levels.

Structure and candlestick patterns revealed a critical low near $9.30 at 12:15 ET, where a strong bullish reversal was triggered. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared at $9.47, followed by a sharp rebound to $10.02. Key resistance levels emerged at $9.68, $9.80, and $10.02, while strong support was observed at $9.30 and $9.45. A long-legged doji at $9.54 (17:30 ET) indicated indecision, with price failing to break through the $9.68 level for a second time.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover at $9.61 (06:45 ET), aligning with the morning rebound. The 20-period SMA hovered around $9.55, while the 50-period SMA was at $9.58. Over the daily chart, the 50-period SMA was at $9.50, with the 200-period SMA at $9.45, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish bias.

MACD showed a positive divergence as price recovered from $9.30 to $10.02, while the RSI oscillated between 30 (oversold) and 70 (overbought), reflecting strong short-term momentum and potential overextension. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 06:00 ET, with price reaching the upper band at $10.26 before retreating. This suggests a period of high volatility and a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Volume spiked during the rebound from $9.30 to $9.48, but declined in the latter half of the session, with price failing to retest key resistances on increasing volume. This divergence between price and volume suggests a possible short-term reversal or consolidation. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, confirming liquidity during key price movements but flagging weakening conviction near the close.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the $9.30 low to the $10.26 high indicated a 61.8% retracement at $9.63 and a 38.2% retracement at $9.79. The 50% level at $9.78 coincided with the upper Bollinger Band and a failed resistance level. On the 15-minute chart, Fibonacci levels from the $9.45 low to $10.02 high highlighted a 61.8% retracement at $9.75, which acted as a minor support during the afternoon consolidation.

Looking ahead, METISUSDT appears poised for a potential test of the $9.75–$9.80 zone on rising volume. A break above $9.80 could extend the move toward $10.02, while a retest of $9.30 would confirm bearish momentum. Investors should remain cautious given the divergences seen in the latter half of the session and watch for a possible consolidation phase before the next directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy focuses on identifying short-term countertrend opportunities using a combination of RSI and volume divergence. Given the recent RSI oversold bounce and the volume divergence seen during the afternoon pullback, a potential setup exists for a countertrend short on a break of $9.51 (the 24-hour close). If price fails to hold above $9.51 and retests the $9.45 support, a mean-reversion long entry could be considered. A trailing stop just below key support at $9.45 would help protect gains and manage risk.