Market Overview for Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) as of 2025-10-10

• Price surged 6.5% from $12.47 to $13.24 amid strong volume, but faced sharp pullback in afternoon ET.
• Key resistance clustered near $13.19–$13.25, while support appears firm at $12.90–$12.95.
• RSI entered overbought territory twice, but failed to sustain momentum, signaling caution.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the early ET rally, narrowing as volatility subsided.
• Volume spiked during breakout attempts but diverged on downward retraces, hinting at mixed conviction.

The Metis/Tether pair (METISUSDT) opened at $12.47 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of $13.24 by 22:45 ET before retreating to a low of $12.23 in the afternoon of 2025-10-10. The 24-hour session closed at $12.26 as of 16:00 ET, with total volume of 27,755.37 and notional turnover of $341,743.05. The session displayed a volatile but structured price action with multiple attempts to break out above the $13.15–$13.25 cluster.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed several key levels of interest. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed around 18:15 ET when price surged from $12.85 to $13.05, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 01:45 ET that pulled price back to $13.04. A morning doji at 01:45 ET and another at 03:30 ET highlighted indecision during key support and resistance levels. The $13.00–$13.05 range acted as a pivot zone multiple times, reinforcing its significance. Notably, a 15-minute bullish harami at 06:00 ET failed to lead to a strong reversal, suggesting bearish pressure remained intact.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover between 17:00 ET and 18:00 ET, supporting the initial breakout move above $13.00. However, by 02:00 ET, the 50 SMA crossed below the 20 SMA, signaling weakening momentum. The daily 50-period SMA sits at $12.75, with the 200-period SMA at $12.50, suggesting that while short-term momentum was bullish, longer-term support is near $12.50. The 100-period SMA at $12.65 acted as a key pivot during the afternoon pullback, with price failing to hold above it.

MACD showed a bullish crossover in the early ET hours, followed by a bearish divergence in the late morning as price made a new high but the MACD failed to do so. RSI reached 75 twice—once at 18:15 ET and again at 22:45 ET—before correcting back to the 50–60 range, indicating overbought exhaustion and a lack of sustained bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout phase from 17:00 to 19:00 ET, reflecting increased volatility and strong directional movement. The upper band reached $13.19–$13.25 during the breakout, which became a key resistance cluster. After the 02:00 ET bearish crossover, bands began to contract, signaling a period of consolidation and reduced volatility. By 15:45 ET, the price was trading near the lower band at $12.41, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to generate a meaningful rebound.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakout phase, particularly at 18:15 ET (volume: $22,226.335) and at 22:45 ET (volume: $10,906.75). These spikes confirmed the breakout and retest of the $13.05–$13.15 resistance area. However, during the pullback, volume declined, suggesting weaker conviction in the bearish move. Divergence was noted between price and volume during the 03:30 ET and 05:00 ET candles, as price fell while volume remained below average. This may indicate potential short-term support near $12.85–$12.90.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the 15-minute swing from $12.43 to $13.24 showed key retracement levels at 38.2% ($13.03) and 61.8% ($12.85). Price tested the 38.2% level at 20:15 ET and 03:30 ET without breaking through, suggesting resistance at $13.00–$13.05. The 61.8% level was decisively broken at 15:30 ET, leading to a sharp pullback to $12.41. For the daily timeframe, the 61.8% retracement from the $12.10–$13.24 swing stands at $12.73, a level tested twice during the afternoon of 2025-10-10.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a 15-minute candlestick-based breakout system, entering long when price closes above the 20-period SMA with volume exceeding the 10-period average, and exiting on a stop-loss at the recent 15-minute low. Given the observed divergence in the MACD and RSI, a trailing stop might be considered for positions held after the breakout. This approach could capitalize on the early ET momentum but would require a strong risk management plan to mitigate the afternoon pullbacks observed on October 10.