Market Overview: Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) — 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• Price fluctuated between $0.001469 and $0.001549, closing near intraday low with bearish momentum.
• Volatility remained moderate, with volume peaking at $178M midday before retreating.
• RSI near neutral zone, Bollinger Bands show moderate expansion, no strong overbought/oversold signals.

MEMEUSDT opened at $0.001492 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.001476 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.001549 and a low of $0.001469. Total 24-hour volume was ~196.5M tokens, with a notional turnover of ~$293M. The price action reflected a continuation of consolidation after earlier sharp intraday movements.

Structure & Formations

Price encountered key resistance at $0.001531–$0.001539 and found support at $0.001485–$0.001475. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the daily high during the 21:30–22:15 ET window, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji near the midday high also hinted at indecision. The intraday low at $0.001469 appears to be a potential short-term support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed near $0.001480–$0.001485, forming a potential confluence zone. On the daily chart, the price sits below the 50DMA and 200DMA, indicating a medium-term bearish bias. The 100DMA at ~$0.001505 could offer a near-term resistance if the price attempts to rebound.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the afternoon, with bearish divergence visible as the price edged lower. RSI hovered near 50 throughout the session, with a dip below 45 suggesting weakening bullish momentum. No clear overbought or oversold conditions emerged, reinforcing a sideways consolidation pattern.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early afternoon and again in the evening, pushing the price toward the upper and lower bands. Price spent more time near the lower band during the final 8 hours, indicating bearish pressure. The bands narrowed briefly during the morning, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to $178M during the 21:00–22:30 ET window but declined sharply after that, signaling reduced conviction in the current direction. Notional turnover remained in line with price movement, with no significant divergences detected. This suggests that price declines were supported by selling volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, a recent $0.001469–$0.001549 swing shows the price finding support near the 61.8% level (~$0.001485). On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement at ~$0.001495 may offer a short-term floor. These levels could determine whether a rebound forms or further consolidation ensues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “RSI Oversold – 3-Day Hold” strategy, tested on MEMEUSDT from 2022 to 2025, yielded a total return of -7.0% and an annualized return of 1.26%. While RSI frequently dipped below 20, signaling potential entry points, the strategy underperformed due to an average trade return of -0.03%. This aligns with today’s neutral RSI and weak momentum, suggesting that oversold conditions alone may not be sufficient to drive profitable rebounds. The shallow Sharpe ratio and deep drawdown highlight the risks of relying on RSI for short-term trading in this asset.