Market Overview for Mask Network/Tether (MASKUSDT) – September 25, 2025

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• Price dropped 7.7% in 24 hours, closing at 1.191 from an open of 1.234.
• Volume spiked sharply after 20:00 ET, with a large candle showing bearish strength.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory, but price failed to rebound above 1.205.
• Large divergence between price and volume suggests possible exhaustion in the selloff.
• Fibonacci levels at 1.205 and 1.222 appear to act as key psychological support/resistance.

Mask Network/Tether (MASKUSDT) opened at 1.234 on September 24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.191 on September 25 at the same time. The pair reached a high of 1.252 and a low of 1.172 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 960,041.6, with a notional turnover of $1,148,146.9. The selloff was concentrated in the latter half of the trading day, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming at the key high of 1.252.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed several bearish patterns, most notably a bearish engulfing candle at 20:15 ET, which marked the high of the session at 1.252. A long-bodied bearish candle with a tail below 1.231 confirmed the loss of momentum. A doji formed at 00:15 ET, indicating indecision, followed by a sharp breakdown to 1.172. Key support levels identified include 1.205 (38.2% Fib), 1.194 (61.8% Fib), and 1.189 (swing low). Resistance levels include 1.205 and 1.222.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearish, crossing below price action. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages were all aligned to the downside, reinforcing the bearish bias. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion after 20:00 ET, with price falling significantly below the lower band during the selloff. This suggests heightened volatility and potential exhaustion in the move lower.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The RSI dropped sharply to 28 by 05:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions, but price failed to respond with a rebound above 1.205. The MACD showed a bearish crossover and remained below the signal line, with the histogram shrinking slightly at the end of the session, suggesting a potential slowdown in the downward momentum. However, the divergence between the price low and the MACD low at 05:00 ET suggests a potential reversal could be in play.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply at 20:15 ET with the candle reaching the high of 1.252, indicating strong bearish pressure. Turnover was also significantly higher during the selloff, with a large block of volume occurring between 02:00 and 04:00 ET. Divergences were noted between the lowest price and the volume profile, with lower prices not being accompanied by higher volume. This may signal that the sell-off is losing steam and buyers may step in at lower levels.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci levels from the high of 1.252 to the low of 1.172 were closely respected throughout the session. The 38.2% retracement level at 1.205 acted as a temporary floor, with the price bouncing off it three times. The 61.8% level at 1.194 also showed strong support. The 1.189 swing low may form a base for near-term buying interest, while the 1.222 level appears to be a potential overhead resistance zone. Traders are likely monitoring these levels for potential reversals or breakouts.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the identified support and resistance levels and the bearish momentum observed in the RSI and MACD, a potential short-term reversal strategy may be tested by entering a long position at or near the 1.194 level with a stop-loss below 1.189. A profit target could be set at 1.205. This strategy assumes that the oversold conditions and divergence in the momentum indicators will lead to a bounce off key support. If volume confirms the reversal with a sharp increase on the upswing, this could strengthen the trade's validity.